NFL Pick: 2023 New York Giants Under 7½ Wins (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The New York Giants finally won their first playoff game since Super Bowl 46 last year, and Brian Daboll was named Coach of the Year in his rookie season for the turnaround effort.
But after turning a 6-1 start into a 3-6-1 slide into the playoffs, the Giants are not entering 2023 hot or with a lot of expectations. At best, the Giants are the No. 3 team in the NFC East, still trailing the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants share more in common with the Washington Commanders, the team they edged out in a pair of close finishes last year to make the playoffs as a No. 6 seed.
The best offshore sportsbooks give the Giants an over/under win total of 7.5 wins. Is that too low for Daboll going into Year 2, or is this team going to be the latest 1-year playoff team that regresses to the mean?
The Changes That Matter
The Giants saw enough with Jones to extend him to a 4-year deal worth $160 million. It is big money for a quarterback they actively tried to limit last season, but how much of the limitations were on the supporting cast of receivers around him?
The Giants tried to address that again this year.
Buying New Toys and Fixing Old Ones
It has not been for a lack of trying that the Giants have not given Jones great receivers. Kenny Golladay was just a shocking bust in free agency after good years in Detroit. Kadarius Toney was a unique weapon in the 1st round, but multiple coaching staffs did not know what to do with him, and since he is always injured, they made him Kansas City’s problem now.
Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson tore their ACLs last season. They should play again this season, but the Giants have some roster decisions to make as they cannot carry all these veteran slot receivers.
Newcomers
The Giants added Parris Campbell, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder. The numbers should dictate that at least one is cut, though Campbell should be the new starter after coming over from Indianapolis.
Is Campbell that exciting of an addition to go along with Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins? Not exactly, but it’s a start. The Giants used a 3rd-round pick on Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, and he could be the deep threat with his speed in this offense. That might be a name to keep an eye on this year.
High Hopes
But the Giants also have high hopes at tight end after trading for Darren Waller from the Raiders. He has speed and can stretch the field in a way the Giants have not done at tight end in a long time. But he also has durability issues with 14 games missed the last 2 years, and he will be 31 this season. This trade is a much bigger deal if it happened in 2021, but the Giants will hope to get some vintage Waller this year.
But to say any of these moves (or their cumulative effect) can match adding an A.J. Brown to the Eagles, Stefon Diggs to the Bills, or Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins would not be accurate.
The Mixed Bag on Defense
The Giants are bringing back defensive coordinator Wink Martindale for his 2nd season with the team. His debut was a mixed bag to say the least. The Giants blitzed more by a significant margin than any defense in the league last year (39.7% according to Pro Football Reference – no other defense was above 34.5%).
When you blitz like that, the results can be volatile as evidenced by the Giants’ ranks on defense last year:
- No. 25 in yards per drive allowed (34.2)
- No. 19 in points per drive allowed (2.10)
- No. 6 in pressure rate (24.3%)
- No. 16 in sack rate (6.7%)
- No. 5 in 3rd down conversion rate (35.1%)
- No. 5 in red zone touchdown rate (49.2%)
- No. 30 in 1st downs allowed
- No. 31 in rushing yards per carry allowed (5.2)
- Tied for the fewest interceptions (6)
- Tied for the 2nd-most fumbles recovered (13)
- Tied for the fewest missed tackles (49)
Blitzkrieg!
We know Martindale will still blitz often. From a regression standpoint, this defense could be all over the map again. At least the flukish number of fumbles recovered that will regress can be offset by getting more interceptions after a league-low 6 picks. But rarely missing tackles and playing so well in situational football are hard metrics for a defense to sustain year after year.
After the Giants missed out on the run of wide receivers in the 1st round, they used the No. 24 pick on corner Deonte Banks, who should be a Week 1 starter. But for this defense to really get back on track, it needs a healthy season from Leonard Williams (only 2.5 sacks in 12 games last year) and a big 2nd-year leap for Kayvon Thibodeaux after 18 pressures and 4.0 sacks for 2022’s No. 5 overall pick.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The schedule could be a detriment to New York improving this year, especially if quarterback Sam Howell is a legitimate starter for the Commanders with Eric Bieniemy running the offense. That could make 6 division games where the Giants will face a more dynamic offense than they have and a more talented defense.
The Giants also have to go to San Francisco on a short week (Thursday night) in Week 3. They have back-to-back trips to Miami (Week 5) and Buffalo (Week 6) that will not be easy. By the time they play the Jets in Week 8, they may be looking good under Aaron Rodgers, who will have a bye week before that one.
Over or Under?
New York’s bye is in Week 13, but the remaining schedule is far from a cakewalk with both Philadelphia matchups in the last 3 games. A trip to New Orleans in Week 15 could also be tough this year.
Even if the Giants clean up in home games against teams of a similar caliber like the Seahawks (Week 4), Patriots (Week 12), Packers (Week 14), and Rams (Week 17), it is still hard to find over 7.5 wins on this schedule. Make Jones prove he can still develop more under Daboll before trusting this team to keep winning. Take the under for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 New York Giants Under 7½ Wins (-130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
On the Last Season of “The Giants”: Daboll Makes His Mark
The Giants hired Brian Daboll with the expectations that he could turn Daniel Jones into a legitimate starting quarterback the way he helped develop Josh Allen in Buffalo as offensive coordinator. It took Allen a 3rd season to have his breakout year, and Daboll was trying to make Jones do it in his 4th season, or else the team may have been parting ways with him this offseason.
The results were somewhere in the middle. It was a down year for quarterback play around the league, so Jones managed to finish No. 6 in QBR (60.8), his best season yet. But a 60.8 would have only ranked No. 16 in 2020, Allen’s breakout year when he was No. 3 with a 76.6 QBR.
The Plan
Part of Daboll’s plan was to feature Jones less and get Saquon Barkley on track at running back. Jones averaged a career-low 200.3 passing yards per game. He had his highest completion percentage (67.2%), his lowest interception rate (1.1%), and his highest yards per attempt (a still below average 6.8).
What really changed for Jones was a lot of late-game success early in the season. In fact, during New York’s surprising 6-1 start, Jones became the first quarterback in NFL history to lead 5 game-winning drives in his team’s first 7 games.
Prior to 2022, Jones was 3-14 (.176) at game-winning drive opportunities, one of the worst records in the league. But everything was going New York’s way early last year.
- Daboll showed some aggression in Week 1 in Tennessee when he had the offense go for a 2-point conversion and late lead instead of playing for overtime.
- The Titans missed a 47-yard game-winning field goal at the end of the game in Week 1.
- A week later against Carolina, the Giants won 19-16 on a 56-yard field goal by Graham Gano.
- In London, the Giants came back from a 20-13 deficit in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, the game where Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb.
- The Giants erased a 20-10 deficit in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, a team that blew 5 multiple-score leads in 2022, after a couple of crucial turnovers by Lamar Jackson late in the game.
- The Giants hung on 23-17 in Jacksonville after the Jaguars completed a pass to the 1-yard line as time expired.
That was the best stretch of the season for the team. After starting 6-1, they would go 1-4-1 in their next 6 games, only notching a win over Houston. Every time they lost or tied with finished the season .500 or better. Barkley went from averaging 103.4 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry in the first 9 games to 54.4 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry in the last 7 games.
Playoff Spot
But what saved a playoff spot for the Giants were the games against Washington in December. Washington was starting to surge behind backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke, but the Giants led 20-13 late in Week 13. The game went to overtime after Washington scored a touchdown, but neither team was able to put together another score, so it ended in a 20-20 tie.
Despite the Commanders getting a bye before the rematch 2 weeks later, it was another game where they trailed 20-12 late at home. But this time Heinicke was unable to force overtime, and the Giants came away with the key divisional win.
But after losing a close game to the Vikings, New York’s last regular-season win came against the Colts, a team that was going through the motions after blowing a 33-0 lead in Minnesota.
Swept
The Giants were swept by the Eagles, though New York barely played any key players in Week 18 with their No. 6 seed locked in. The Giants went back to Minnesota for the wild card round, and that was the perfect matchup for this team since the Giants were 0-6 against the other playoff teams in the NFC last year.
Jones only had 3 games where he passed for at least 230 yards last year, and 2 of them were in Minnesota against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He passed for 301 yards and ran 17 times for 78 yards in the 31-24 wild-card win. It was his first game-winning drive since the 6-1 start.
But the Giants had to face the Eagles for a 3rd time late in the year, and the game was practically decided in the opening quarter after a quick 14-0 lead for the Eagles. The Giants lost 38-7 in their worst performance yet against the Eagles last year.
It was the most exciting season for the Giants in a long time, but they are going to have to find a more sustainable way to win games going forward.
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