NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Parlay Picks of the Day (Archive)
The top sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Michigan vs. Villanova and Texas Tech vs. Duke.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats
Thursday, March 24, 2022 – 07:29 PM EDT at AT&T
Size
One thing that Michigan supporters will point out is that they have an advantage in size. Specifically, they will point to center Hunter Dickinson who is clearly bigger and stronger than anything that Villanova will throw at him defensively.
While the Wolverines do have this physical advantage, it will not help them tonight. Defensively, Villanova is extremely used to playing undersized. From Purdue's Zach Edey to a variety of Big East centers, Villanova has faced several strong and physically superior big men.
The Wildcats have thus had all season to be acclimated to this physical disadvantage. What they will do, typically, is a double team the post. Off-ball defenders will also help disturb the opposing big man inside by digging from the perimeter.
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By investing this extra defensive attention inside, they make up, in numbers, for the lack of size of anyone Wildcat defender. Of course, the flip side here is that, by devoting extra attention inside, Villanova's perimeter defense exposes itself.
However, this year's brand of Michigan basketball lacks the personnel to take advantage of such a defensive strategy by making the Wildcats pay for paying too much attention to Dickinson.
In conference play, no team attempted a lower ratio of three-point attempts than Michigan. Out of all Big Ten teams, the Wolverines ranked 11th in three-point percentage. This is not the Michigan of Jordan Poole.
Switching
Villanova's size allows it to play a position-less brand of basketball as part of which it switches one through five. Switching will keep an on-ball defender locked onto the opposing ball-handler because the screened defender will simply stop guarding him as a teammate will seamlessly guard him in place of him.
This emphasis on switching is going to be problematic for Michigan given the midrange game of guards DeVante Jones and Eli Brooks. Both players largely explain why Michigan attempts the nation's 25th-highest percentage of two-point jumpers. But Villanova switching won't allow them to use a ball-screen or dribble handoff to easily get to one of their desired midrange shooting positions.
Size and Versatility
On offense, Villanova boasts superior size and versatility. Its size, specifically, is in its guard play where their point and shooting guards are at least significantly taller than their Wolverine counterparts. Their two- or three-inch advantages will be meaningful because all Villanova players -- even the smallest ones -- are known for posting up inside.
Wildcat point and shooting guards will back down and shoot over the top of their Michigan defenders. Look out, especially, for two-time Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie, who excels at creating scoring chances for himself or for others by probing a defense inside the arc.
As for its versatility, Villanova is known for playing five-out basketball. Michigan, with its 6-11 power forward and 7-1 center, lacks the personnel on defense to handle this sort of spacing. Wildcat bigs will use their superior speed to race past their Wolverine counterparts.
NCAAB Pick: Wildcats ML (-220) with BetOnline
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Duke Blue Devils
Thursday, March 24, 2022 - 09:39 PM EDT at Chase Center
Sliding
People lavish praise over Duke for triumphing against a Michigan State squad that collected only six wins since scraping past lowly Maryland on February 1st. But Duke's win over this high-profile team obscures its own poor form. Like the Spartans, Duke has been sliding lately.
After getting decimated by North Carolina at home in the final game of the regular season, Duke had a tough time against both Syracuse and especially Miami in the ACC Tournament before losing soundly to Virginia Tech. This is, right now, not a convincing Duke team.
Like Nothing Before
Duke will be at a disadvantage tonight because it has not seen anything like Texas Tech's defense which ranks number one nationally in efficiency. There simply aren't comparably tough defenses in the ACC, since Virginia is having a down year on defense. The Red Raider defense is superior for its no-middle philosophy.
It will force the opposing offense to stay on one side of the court which it will use to help the defense to close off smaller available driving lanes. After forcing the opposing ball-handler into making difficult cross-court passes, Red Raider defenders will use their greater length to intercept them.
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Their length and overall chemistry help explain why their defense ranks 11th nationally in turnover rate. Length will be a problem, individually, for 6-1 Blue Devil point guard Jeremy Roach who has been a big part of Duke's ongoing tournament run.
Like against a Miami team known to a lesser extent for creating turnovers, Roach will struggle and contribute to his team's poor play.
Rebounding
The counter is that, while Duke may struggle offensively, the Red Raider offense is not good. It is true that the Red Raider offense is relatively inefficient. On offense, Texas Tech relies on procuring rebounds in order to have additional chances at scoring on a possession. Its length helps it rank 40th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Duke is just the team for it to dominate on the glass because the Blue Devils rank well below average in defensive rebounding percentage. The offense, then, won't be a problem for Texas Tech. Not only does this team excel at creating scoring chances inside for its plethora of wings, but its supremacy on the glass will create a margin of error that will devastate a Duke team sorely in need of points.
Plus, the Red Raiders are a notoriously physical team that is great at drawing fouls. As evident in its ridiculously low number of bench minutes, Duke does not have much depth. Blue Devil players will need to make an extra effort to guard without fouling.
NCAAB Pick:Red Raiders ML (-115) with BetOnline
Parlay Verdict
For the above reasons, parlay the Villanova ML with the Red Raiders ML for your best bets. Feel free to use our trusty Parlay Calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Parlay Pick
- Villanova Wildcats ML (-220)
- Texas Red Raiders ML (-115)
NCAAB Best Bet: Two-Legged Parlay (+172) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.