NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets (Archive)
The top sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for the upcoming Final Four action. One game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in Villanova vs. Kansas.
After winning a rock fight with Houston, Villanova has made it to another Final Four albeit without the injured Justin Moore. Kansas, meanwhile, is the last remaining number one seed. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this college basketball game.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, April 2, 2022 – 06:09 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
The Importance of Kansas' Perimeter Defense
Perimeter defense will be crucial for Kansas because Villanova attempts three-pointers at the nation's 20th-highest rate. If you can limit Villanova's success from behind the arc, then you will debilitate its overall offense.
When the Wildcats scored only 50 points in its last NCAA Tournament game, for example, they managed no more than five made threes. Statistically, Kansas' perimeter defense could hardly be better. It ranks 74th nationally at limiting opposing three-point attempts and 17th in the nation at limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
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One may cast doubt on the merit of these numbers by pointing to the success from deep that some of the better shooting teams had against Villanova. However, these successes -- such as Michigan State's -- came earlier in the season.
In terms of overall efficiency, Kansas' defense is enjoying a massive improvement that undermines the analytical validity of earlier-season games.
Targeting
Kansas' perimeter defense is strongly coached because its contributors know to focus on limiting the opposing team's best shooters. The Jayhawks are specific about who they allow shooting threes. For example, during their ball-screen coverage, they will allow less efficient shooters to pop behind the arc while they have two defenders converge upon the ball-handler.
But they will stick to the other team's better shooters in order to prevent specifically them from attempting propitious three-point attempts.
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Given their well-guided perimeter defense, Kansas' last opponent, Miami, had its two best three-point shooters go one-for-six from deep combined. In a similar vein, Kansas' previous opponent, Providence, has three really good shooters: Jared Bynum, A.J. Reeves, and Noah Horchler.
These three players combined for 3-for-16 from deep in their loss to Kansas. For Villanova, four players convert over 35 percent of their three-point attempts. One is Eric Dixon, who rarely attempts them. Another is Justin Moore who is injured. The others are point guard Collin Gillespie and Caleb Daniels.
So Kansas' perimeter defense will be sure to target specifically this last pair.
Matchups
Villanova lives to do a lot of drive-and-kick action in order to generate favorable three-point attempts. The key here to a favorable three-point attempt is the driver's ability to force help defense whereby an opposing defender leaves his opponent behind the arc in order to help prevent a layup opportunity.
In the first half, Miami was able to force Jayhawk defenders to help inside by utilizing the speed and athleticism of its athletes. Besides products of crazy quickness off the dribble and athletically impressive step-back threes, the Hurricane three-point attack was accomplishing little in the first half and, besides, it along with the entire offense was shut down in the second half.
Villanova anyhow does not have those athletes. As evident from game footage, their explosiveness does not compare with that of Miami's guys. Instead of relying on the particular athletic skill set of its players, Villanova will rely on posting up with its wings and guards before passing the ball back out.
Kansas' Key to Success
Nova players will be schemed open via pick-and-roll actions. They'll also be spread out and move the ball. One may worry about Kansas' ability to guard the five-out offense that Nova favors. But recall that Nova cannot shoot the three one-through-five.
By focusing on limiting Villanova's top shooters, Kansas' perimeter defense will force a lot of bricks to happen. A pretty good defensive rebounding team, Kansas' perimeter defense will lead to rebounds and then to Jayhawk players running out.
Know for your best bets that the Jayhawk perimeter defense will thus support its team's offense by creating rebound opportunities that allow KU to up the tempo. Upping the tempo would suit Kansas as much as it would make a Wildcat team uncomfortable that characteristically likes to play a slow and patient game.
Missing Moore
While Moore's three-point shooting will be missed, people often forget about his abilities as a defender. A solid perimeter defender, he regularly drew the assignment of guarding the opposing team's best scorer.
Moore's absence will help out Ochai Agbaji, who is already a dangerous scorer both inside and outside the arc. Outside the arc, he's converting 39.8 percent of his three-point attempts this season.
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He is also superb at moving without the ball. His off-ball movement allows him to be efficient inside the arc where is also pretty good at scoring off the dribble. His off-ball movement is key to his often momentous scoring inside the arc, though, as much as it is a big part of his ability to get open behind the arc.
Agbaji's big game plus Kansas' ability to dictate pace will, along with its perimeter defense, secure a double-digit Jayhawk victory. For the above reasons, invest in Kansas for your NCAAB picks.
Best Bet: Jayhawks -4 (-113) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Total Verdict
As for the total, it is as low as it is because of Villanova's slow style of play which normally produces lower-scoring outcomes. However, because of the success with which I foresee Kansas upping the overall game tempo via rebounds and run-outs, we will see more scoring opportunities.
More scoring opportunities inevitably entail a higher probability for more scoring, which especially Kansas will take advantage of and all the more given Moore's absence. Therefore, in addition to Kansas, I recommend the 'over'.
Best Bet: Over 133 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.