NFL Pick: 2023 Minnesota Vikings Over 8½ Wins (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Minnesota Vikings took the most unusual path to 13 wins in NFL history last season, a remarkable feat for rookie coach Kevin O’Connell. But after losing at home to the Giants in the wild-card round, the Vikings are being passed over in favor of the Lions as the new favorite team in the NFC North division at the top-rated offshore sportsbooks.
The Vikings have an over/under of 8½ wins, which feels a bit low in an NFC that has lost Tom Brady (retired) and Aaron Rodgers (Jets) and only seems to have a trio of legitimate contenders in the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers.
Kirk Cousins is one of the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL now, but that experience and consistency of keeping a team around .500 could serve the Vikings very well as they try to fight off the regression expected to come in close games this year.
The Changes That Matter
The Vikings are saying goodbye to a significant amount of veteran talent and leadership, but these players were not built for the long term of this team under O’Connell. At least the defense has a new coordinator.
Kirk Cousins: Positive Regression?
Regression is the common argument against the 2023 Vikings because there is just no way you can sustain an 8-0 record at comeback opportunities like they had in the 2022 regular season.
Prior to last season, Kirk Cousins was 12-36-2 (.260) at those comeback opportunities in his career. That is a below-average record. But the weird part about Cousins in 2022 is that it was statistically among his worst seasons as a starter since 2015, if not his worst.
He can play better, and he is usually more accurate and efficient than he was in 2022. In playing in O’Connell’s system for the first year, maybe he just needs another season to correct mistakes and feel more comfortable as we have seen with quarterbacks before whether it was Matt Ryan with Kyle Shanahan (2015-16 Falcons) or Aaron Rodgers with Matt LaFleur (2019-20 Packers).
MVP Caliber?
That does not necessarily mean an MVP award for Cousins in 2023, but he does get to play with a dominant wide receiver in Jefferson, who should be allowed to move around more like O’Connell did with Cooper Kupp in Los Angeles.
A better Cousins, who is the master of finishing within a game of .500, is the easiest path back to the playoffs for the Vikings. If not the playoffs, then at least over 8.5 wins again in a weak NFC.
New Back and No. 2 Receiver
The Vikings have moved on from lead running back Dalvin Cook (Jets) and No. 2 wideout Adam Thielen (Panthers). They will be going with Alexander Mattison as the new lead back and rookie wideout Jordan Addison was drafted in the 1st round.
The loss of Cook could sting as Mattison has rarely ever shined when not playing the Lions or Seahawks in his career. He will have to prove he can be a high-workload back, but the team could do worse.
Rookie Talent
Addison is an interesting talent who could absolutely pair well with Jefferson for years to come. But you do worry about losing the efficiency of Thielen, who was a high catch rate and reliable target for Cousins. But Thielen was slowing down and is past his prime. Jefferson is a pick for the long term and likely has the best shot of having the biggest season out of the 4 wide receivers drafted in the opening round this year.
The good news is K.J. Osborn has put up 650 yards the last two seasons and has been building his way up in the offense, so he could be in store for his biggest season yet should Addison be slow to develop as a rookie.
The Vikings also have T.J. Hockenson at tight end after trading for him during the season. He will have a whole offseason to get implemented properly into this offense for O’Connell and Cousins. Running some deeper routes past the sticks would be a nice start.
Vikings Give Brian Flores an Unstocked Cupboard
The Vikings had a very problematic defense last season which is why so many of the games were high scoring and close. While they made a good move to hire Brian Flores as the new defensive coordinator, he may be taking over a defense with even less talent than it had last year.
Among the veterans gone from last year are Za’Darius Smith, Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendricks, Chandon Sullivan, and Dalvin Tomlinson. That is several Pro Bowlers and the team’s 2nd-leading sacker in Smith.
At least Danielle Hunter is still there as the best pass rusher, and safety Harrison Smith returns as the leader of the secondary. But Flores is going to have his work cut out for him in getting even mediocre results out of this random collection of starters. The Vikings used their only top 100 pick in this year’s draft on Addison.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Playing in the NFC North should help the Vikings in the record department. There is no juggernaut team here, and Aaron Rodgers is gone in Green Bay, a team the Vikings have been good at splitting with recently. The Vikings could get a third of the way to 9 wins from the division alone.
As for the close-game regression, yes, the Vikings are 100% going to do worse in close games this year. But that does not mean they will finish 5-12 because of it. Even after the 2016 Lions, a 9-7 team with 8 comeback wins, had their record-setting number of comeback wins, they still finished with the same 9-7 record in 2017. They just only had 1 comeback win in that season and did not make the playoffs as 9-7 does not always cut it.
Over or Under?
You have to think Minnesota’s scoring capabilities can serve the team well in home games with the Buccaneers (Week 1), Chargers (Week 3), and Saints (Week 10). The same can be said for road games with the Panthers (Week 4), Falcons (Week 9), Broncos (Week 11), and Raiders Week 14).
It may not be pretty when the Vikings face teams like the Chiefs (Week 5), 49ers (Week 7), Eagles (Week 2), and Bengals (Week 15), but that is only a small section of the overall schedule. There are enough wins here to hit the over for your NFL picks, and having a quarterback like Cousins in an NFC filled with unproven passers still leaves the possibility for another division title or at least a playoff berth in Minnesota.
NFL Pick: 2023 Minnesota Vikings Over 8½ Wins (-130) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The Vikings”: A Memorable Season No Matter What
Even if you think the 2022 Vikings are the worst 13-win team in NFL history, you have to admit they made history and were a lot of fun to watch unless you caught them during one of their few blowout losses.
That combination of close wins and blowout losses helped the Vikings to become the first team in NFL history to win more than 11 games despite a negative scoring differential (minus-3).
High Scoring Games
The team scored and allowed an almost identical number of points as it did in 2021 when the Vikings were 8-9, but last year saw the team record a record-tying 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins and game-winning drives. Only the 2016 Lions with Matthew Stafford had that many in a season.
The comebacks that are always going to stand out are the wins against the Bills and Colts. The game in Buffalo alone was one of the wildest finishes in the history of football. From Justin Jefferson making a one-handed catch in traffic on a 4th-and-18 to a goal-line stand to Josh Allen fumbling a snap for a game-tying touchdown, that game had it all.
But that game is also a good example of why it will be so hard for the Vikings to win as often as they did in close games next season. You just cannot script a team fumbling a snap in a situation where they had the ball with the lead, 50 seconds left, and the Vikings were out of timeouts. That should be a 100%-win scenario for the leading team, but the Bills found a way to blow it. It was the most improbable fumble touchdown in the NFL since the Miracle at the Meadowlands in 1978.
The Comeback
Then there was the 33-point comeback against the Colts, surely the defining moment of the Jeff Saturday tenure that never should have happened in Indianapolis. You have to be coaching against someone who has no business coaching to make that comeback. The Vikings held tough that day, and the Colts botched several opportunities to put the game away, including another quarterback sneak stop on 4th down.
But Minnesota’s comeback magic was mostly used up in that game. The Vikings pulled one out against the Giants in Week 16, but in the playoff rematch, Daniel Jones shredded the defense through the air again and used his legs more than ever for a 31-24 win. When Kirk Cousins had a chance at another clutch drive, this time he threw a pass well short of the sticks on 4th down to end the season.
Ending a Streak
Minnesota was 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities during the regular season but 0-1 in the playoffs. It ended a personal streak of 18 straight close wins for O’Connell, who was the offensive coordinator of the Rams in 2021 when they became the first team to win 3 straight playoff games by 3 points.
It was a great run and fun to watch, but the Vikings have to start from scratch in 2023 and figure out why they were behind so often in games.
Calculators
