Under 9.5 (–115)
Mets vs. Yankees: He Can’t Hit, He Can’t Hit, He Can’t Hit! (Archive)
The New York Yankees will host the New York Mets this Friday, giving us yet another chance to fade the Yankees for our MLB picks.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Friday, July 2, 2021 – 7:05 p.m. EDT at Yankee Stadium
It’s become a weekly tradition here at the ranch: Every Friday, we fade the New York Yankees, and every Friday, we get paid. Okay, it’s only been three weeks in a row, but why stop now? The Yankees (41-39, minus-10.57 betting units) have been on the wrong end of the MLB scores so often this year, their supporters are blanketed in a thick layer of chalk dust, like the victims of Pompeii come to life. It’s only right that we should profit from their misery.
There is one small problem, though. The Yankees are hosting the New York Mets this Friday, and the Mets are almost exactly as sucky as their crosstown rivals. At press time, the Mets have a minus-2 run differential on the season, one run better than the Bombers with two weeks left to go before the All-Star break. The Mets are in the much less competitive National League East, though, where they sit in first place at 41-35 (minus-1.47 units) heading into Thursday’s action. We’re not convinced the betting odds will give us enough of a price to continue fading the Yankees for fun and profit.
Subway to Venus
Let’s put our skepticism aside for now and do some quick math. Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) have opened the Yankees as –138 home faves, with lefty Jordan Montgomery (3.55 FIP) due to start this series opener. Note: It says Gerrit Cole on our list of top online sportsbooks at press time, but he’s pitching Saturday’s contest.
We went directly to Bovada to make sure their MLB odds were correct, and they had Montgomery listed, so it’s all good. Anyway, it’s time now for your favorite gambling calculator and mine, the shimmering BMR Odds Converter. If you plug in –138 and turn it into an implied probability, you get very close to 58 percent as a break-even point for the Yankees winning Friday’s matchup. However, the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project them to win just 55 percent of the time. Well, shucks. Maybe there’s a smidge of value on the Mets after all, especially with Taijuan Walker (2.93 FIP) taking the mound.
Even Flow
It depends on where you shop, though. That 55-percent forecast means you need a price of +122 on the Mets (use the calculator) to break even in the long run – keep in mind, these are “fair” moneylines we’re dealing with here, no vigorish included. The Mets are +118 at Bovada, where they use a 40-cent moneyline; over at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), you can get them at +122 on their 20-cent MLB lines. Break-even is better than nothing.
Maybe we can do better with that 9.5-run total, though. These are two quality starters on the hill, facing two unimpressive batting orders; the Yankees are No. 14 overall with a .720 team OPS, and
the Mets are No. 28 (!) with a .674 OPS. Walker has the Under at 8-6 this year, and Montgomery has it at 8-6-1. Let’s give it a spin on what should be a muggy July evening in the Bronx.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.