Mavericks vs. Suns NBA Playoffs Game 1 Predictions and Pick (Archive)
The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns kick off Game 1 of their second-round series on TNT this Monday evening. Dallas just won its first playoff series since the 2011 NBA Finals while the Suns eliminated New Orleans in six games.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, May 02, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
The Suns (48-40 ATS) are a 5.5-point favorite over the Mavericks (52-34-2 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Suns are 3-0 this season against Dallas with each win by seven or eight points. Phoenix has actually won nine games in a row against Dallas, including six straight games, all by single digits, since acquiring Chris Paul. Can Dallas change the script in the playoffs?
Series Recap: Suns Lead 3-0
The consistency in outcomes between these teams over the last two seasons is hard to believe. Not only is Phoenix 6-0 against Dallas, but in each game, the Suns scored 105-to-112 points and Dallas scored 98-108 points. Fairly close, low scoring, and Phoenix always comes out on top. The Mavericks have shot under 45% from the field in nine of the last 10 meetings with Phoenix.
These teams met in consecutive games in November, but Luka Doncic was inactive for both, so the results are a bit tainted. But even when Doncic is active against Phoenix, he and the Mavericks have lost seven games in a row. Doncic has shot under 40% from the field in his last two meetings with Phoenix, including a 9-for-23 game in January.
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In that January 20th meeting in Dallas, the Mavericks took an 82-74 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Suns outscored them 35-19 on the way to a 109-101 win. Chris Paul was the closer again with 10 points in the fourth quarter.
While the Mavericks can take some solace in holding the efficient Phoenix offense down, the Dallas offense is going to have to find ways to crack this tough defense. Dallas failed to score more than 104 points in any of the three meetings this season. Phoenix is 49-0 when allowing fewer than 110 points this season.
The Suns are 12-6 when they shoot under 30% from three this season. Dallas is 9-15 under the same circumstances.
How Both Teams Are Playing Now
Both teams are going to see a step up in competition from their first-round opponent, both of which they defeated in six games after an injury scare to a superstar. Luka Doncic missed the first three games against Utah before returning in Game 4 and playing very well.
Devin Booker was injured during a brilliant Game 2 against New Orleans, but he returned for Game 6 and watched Paul make all 14 of his field goals to carry the team to another series win.
But the Mavericks are definitely going to have to play better offense after failing to score more than 102 points in the last three games against Utah, a mentally soft team. The Suns are battle-tested and hungry to get back to the Finals after blowing a 2-0 lead to Milwaukee.
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The Suns shot 52.3% from the field against New Orleans, the best in the playoffs, despite Jae Crowder going 3-for-26 from three. But the stars played well with Mikal Bridges also contributing a 31-point game in Game 5 and Deandre Ayton had 28 points and 17 rebounds in Game 3.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks overcame Doncic’s absence early in the series against Utah with brilliant games from Jalen Brunson. He scored 41 points in Game 2 and 31 points in Game 3. Brunson scored at least 23 points in all six games against Utah, which is the kind of scoring stretch he never had in the regular season.
According to NBA.com, the Jazz only made 27.4% of their wide-open shots in the first round against Dallas. The Suns will not shoot that poorly. In the regular season, Phoenix made 44.2% of its wide-open shots, the third-best rate in the league.
Predictions
Dallas is 39-18-1 ATS (68.4%) in conference games this season, the best record in the NBA. But while the guard play should be high for both teams, Ayton gives the Suns a strong advantage at center. He missed the last Dallas matchup. The Mavericks are likely going to snap this Phoenix losing streak during this series, but I trust the Suns to come out strong in Game 1 and get the cover for your NBA picks.
Score Prediction: Suns 108, Mavericks 102
NBA Pick: Suns -5.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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