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Mariners vs. Pirates MLB Best Bet: Gilbert Makes Skenes Walk the Plank
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LT Profits
- August 16, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are 25-15-1 in our last 41 plays entering Friday’s 14-game card of MLB betting matchups following a 2-0-1 Wednesday.
We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Steel City in the Mariners vs. Pirates matchup on Friday.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Marlins vs. Mets and Dodgers vs. Cardinals games.
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, August 16, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at PNC Park
Great Pitcher, Poor Support
In a great pitching matchup between Paul Skenes and the Pirates and Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, we are opting for the value by backing Seattle at an underdog price.
Skenes is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate as he boasts a 2.25 ERA and 2.68 xFIP. He also has an outstanding K/BB ratio 11.25/1.95 per nine innings and was an All-Star this season. The reason he is not listed with the league leaders is because he does not qualify with only 92 innings pitched after starting the season in the minors. But if he was able to make the All-Star Game after a belated start, he should also be able to receive ROY award votes.
With all that being said, there is a reason he is just 6-2 through 15 starts and that is a lack of run support from a weak offense. Sadly, that does not figure to change tonight against a formidable mound opponent (more on that in a bit). Therefore, as great as Skenes has been, he seems like a vulnerable favorite here.
Not Far Behind
Paul Skenes is not the only pitcher here with a sub-3.00 ERA, as Gilbert comes in with a 2.81 ERA through 24 starts covering 154.2 innings, with that ERA ranking seventh best in baseball. Sure, his xFIP is a bit higher, but it is still very good at 3.34 which ranks a commendable 12th in the league.
And while Logan’s K/BB ratio is not at Skenes’ level, it too is quite solid at 8.67/1.57 per nine innings. He combines that command ratio with a good groundball rate of 44.7% that is the highest of his four-year career.
Moreover, let us not forget that he is facing a Pittsburgh offense ranked second to last in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at a mere 83, ahead of only the lowly White Sox.
The Pick
So while we concede Skenes has been the better pitcher, Logan Gilbert is also having a fine year over a bigger sampling and figures to get better run support. This has us betting the Mariners to upset in Pittsburgh on Friday.
Predicted Score: Mariners 4 – Pirates 2
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
