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Diamondbacks vs. Rays MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay to Corral Snakes
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LT Profits
- August 16, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We enter Friday’s full slate of MLB betting matchups 25-15-1 in our last 41 plays after going 2-0-1 on Wednesday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes down in Tampa, where our model likes a side when the Diamondbacks visit the Rays.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, August 16, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
Erratic Form
The Diamondbacks are the hottest team in baseball at 10-1 in the last 11 games. However, in this case, we feel that has them overvalued with Ryne Nelson on the mound taking on Ryan Pepiot and the Rays. We are betting on Tampa Bay at a cheap price at home.
Nelson is coming off a nice start where he allowed two runs on just three hits in 7.1 innings against the Phillies. However, he has been maddeningly inconsistent all season, especially while alternating bad and good starts in his last four outings. A continuance of that pattern would put him in line for a bad start tonight.
That erraticism has left Ryne Nelson at 8-6 with a 4.51 ERA and 4.22 xFIP. He also has a disturbing combination of a moderate strikeout rate of 7.27 per nine innings and a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.8% / 35.4%. The modest K-rate is not a fluke either considering his swinging strike rate of 8.2% is the worst of his three-year career.
Activated For This Start
Ryan Pepiot is being activated for this start after spending time on the injured list with a knee issue that proved to be nothing serious. He is now looking to build on the good season he was having before getting shelved on July 14th. He enters at 6-5 but has pitched better than that with a 3.92 ERA and aligning 3.94 xFIP.
In fact, Ryan is having the best season of his career, keyed by a nice strikeout rate of 9.69/9 through 87.1 innings, validated by a career-best swinging strike rate of 12.3%. Further proof that Pepiot’s improvement is real is his excellent overall Stuff+ rating of 118, with four pitches from his vast five-pitch arsenal rated over 100.
The Pick
This has us high on Pepiot for the rest of the season, while you never know which Nelson will show up. As hot as Arizona is right now, we are fading them in this spot with the Rays at a reasonable price in Tampa on Friday.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Diamondbacks 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
