Latest Odds to Win the 2022 NBA Championship (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their latest NBA future odds. The All-Star break gives us the perfect opportunity to sit back, assess what we’ve seen in this NBA season so far, and make predictions about the future.
As a bettor, I am looking to get the most value for my dollar. With this goal in mind, let’s consider which teams are most worth investing in.
NBA Odds to Win 2022 Championship
- Phoenix Suns: +300
- Brooklyn Nets: +550
- Golden State Warriors: +650
- Milwaukee Bucks: +700
- Boston Celtics: +900
- Philadelphia 76ers: +1000
- Miami Heat: +1100
- Utah Jazz: +2000
- Memphis Grizzlies: +2000
- Denver Nuggets: +2800
- Dallas Mavericks: +3300
- Chicago Bulls: +6000
- Los Angeles Lakers: +8000
- Cleveland Cavaliers: +10000
These odds are provided by Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), But be sure to shop around the different online sportsbooks in order to locate the best number.
In order to be objective as possible about deciding which team or teams to invest in, let’s establish the things that an NBA champion needs to have.
Wins
It’s often said that the regular season offers minimal indication of who will succeed in the playoffs. While it would be mistaken to place too much analytical emphasis on regular season results, we shouldn’t dismiss them entirely. Since 2005, every NBA champion but one ranked top-five in the regular season in win-percentage.
Last season, Milwaukee was the last exception. The Bucks, though, benefitted from injuries to other teams’ star players while they stayed relatively healthy.
In other words, the Bucks beat teams en route to their championship that did not have the degree of health in their personnel that they had relied on to earn a great regular season record.
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The Bucks were also no regular season slouches: they had the NBA’s seventh-best win percentage. It may be alluring to invest in a dark horse that’s hot right now — Boston, for example.
At the time of this writing, the Celtics had won nine of their last 10, but their ability to win on the road remains questionable because, during their win streak, they got to face many bottom-feeder teams such as Detroit and Orlando. So far, they have a losing record on the road.
Three-Point Shooting
One other reason why the Celtics are unappealing is their inefficient three-point shooting. When I wrote this, they ranked 21st in three-point percentage. The problem with this ranking is that three-point shooting is a point of emphasis in today’s NBA.
NBA champions tend to rank highly in three-point percentage. In close games especially, every possession counts, and it’s helpful to be able to score more often an extra point (three instead of two) in a possession.
In addition to the Celtics, the 76ers and Grizzlies are worth eliminating from consideration for their inefficient shooting from deep.
Defense
Defensive rating is likewise a valuable statistic to account for when selecting a potential NBA champion. Since 2005, every NBA Finals winner has ranked top-11 in defensive rating. This fact eliminates Chicago from consideration.
The Bulls have improved vastly this year, such that they own one of the NBA’s highest win percentages. While their three-point shooting has been efficient, they rank 20th in defensive rating.
Other potential candidates like the Nets, Nuggets, and Lakers must likewise be eliminated from consideration due to their lack of defensive quality.
Superstar
It is often said that the NBA is a superstar-driven league and this is true. An NBA champion will have a superstar. Last year it was Giannis. Frequently, it’s been LeBron, Steph Curry, or Kevin Durant.
All three of those players will take over for their team with the game on the line and they will be the most prolific scorers on their squad. Of those superstars, LeBron and Durant play on teams whose defense is too poor.
Giannis is on a Milwaukee team that is still competitive. However, it’s rare for a team to win back-to-back championships. It’s this reliable, repeat All-NBA first-teamer that Miami misses.
My Pick
While Phoenix checks the aforementioned boxes, Suns’ stars lack the same championship pedigree that my NBA pick has. I recommend investing in Golden State to win it all. The Warriors have the three-point shooting efficiency,
They’ve done it before with their current head coach and, in my view, they’re the likeliest team to become NBA champs this year.
NBA Pick: Golden State (+650) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.