Lakers vs. Mavericks Free NBA Picks for March 29 (Archive)
The Los Angeles Lakers belong in your NBA picks. They’re getting way too many points for Tuesday’s matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, March 29, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
It’s been a long, long time since we could say this, but it’s finally true: The Los Angeles Lakers are the right choice on the NBA odds board.
It took a whole lot of losing for this to happen, and to a lesser extent, it took the Dallas Mavericks providing the opposition to make L.A. the value pick for Tuesday’s matchup in Big D.
Seriously, though: When was the last time you could put Lakers +12 in your NBA picks? That’s where things stand at BetOnline as we go to press.
According to our crack research staff here at the home office, the last time they were getting this many points was at the tail end of the 2018-19 season, their first year with LeBron James – except he and several other players were injured by then, and the Lakers were tanking it up big-time.
The situation isn’t quite as dire this year. It’s not great by any means; the Lakers (31-43 SU, 31-42-1 ATS) are clinging to 10th place in the Western Conference, a half-game up on the San Antonio Spurs for the last berth in the play-in tournament. But that’s more than enough motivation to make Los Angeles +12 the right pick.
Johnson > James
Okay, those points matter a lot more than motivation. FiveThirtyEight project Dallas (46-29 SU, 41-33-1 ATS) to win this contest by 10.5 points, which leaves a gap of 1.5 points between the projections and the actual NBA lines.
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It’s a big enough gap for a small wager, although not our preferred old-school two points as per Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky. There is a twist, though, and it appears to be in LeBron’s left ankle.
James is considered doubtful for Tuesday after getting hurt during Sunday’s 116-108 come-from-ahead loss to the New Orleans Pelicans (–4 at home).
It seems like a given James will get the night off after skipping Monday’s practice, which means L.A. fans will get an extra helping of Stanley Johnson instead.
Not ideal, but at least Johnson has posted a plus-2.3 On/Off at Basketball Reference since donning the Purple and Gold. That’s one point better than James.
Dinwiddie Does Dallas
As for Tuesday night’s opponents, the Mavericks had a ton of betting value after the trade deadline, when they sent Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards and got Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans in return.
Foolish people like myself thought this was a head-scratcher, but Dinwiddie has fit in nicely, and the Mavs went 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their first 10 post-deadline games.
The market for Dallas has cooled off a bit since then. The Mavericks are still doing well at 6-4 SU, but all their profit has dried up at 5-5 ATS.
This looks like a perfect time to “sell high” on the Mavs and take a contrarian flyer on Los Angeles, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Lakers +12 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.