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Jazz vs. Clippers NBA Playoffs Game 3 Picks: Can LA Stop Jordan Clarkson? (Archive)

Originally published on June 11, 2021

The Los Angeles Clippers will try to get back in the series when they host the Utah Jazz on Saturday night. Here’s a complete preview for Game 3, including Today’s Odds and NBA picks.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz

Saturday, June 12, 2021 – 08:30 PM EDT at STAPLES Center

The Clippers opened as 4-point favorites at Wager Web and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them at -3. This leaves a 1-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Clippers a 63 percent chance to win. The equivalent moneyline is -170. For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Jazz at -1.82 using his Rating numbers, and at -0.60 using his eigenvector analysis. Is there some room to grab potential betting value with the Jazz +4 at Galaxy Sports?

Mitchell and Clarkson Playing Like Jordan and Pippen

The Jazz protected their home court with Thursday’s 117-111 win in Game. The Clippers trailed for nearly the entire game but they never let it get out of hand. LA’s late rally nearly came together and they even took the lead at one point but the Jazz surged when it mattered and closed things out. Donovan Mitchell had another monster game with 37 points and Utah forced nine straight misses down the stretch to outlast Los Angeles.

Jordan Clarkson had 24 points in 27 minutes off the bench, including six 3-pointers on nine attempts, Joe Ingles finished with 19 points and Rudy Gobert added 13 points and a career playoff-high 20 rebounds. Reggie Jackson stepped up for the Clippers with a team-high 29 points and Paul George had 27 points on 8 of 18 shooting but Kawhi Leonard had a quiet night with 21 points and just two in the fourth quarter.

Prediction

The Clippers will not get back in this series unless Kawhi Leonard takes over at the end of games. LA won’t get far if Leonard scores just two points in the fourth quarter once again. They also need a lot more from Marcus Morris. The veteran did grab 10 rebounds but he scored just eight points on 4-for-11 from the field, missing his five 3-point attempts. Morris has to produce a lot more or this series will end soon.

Reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson is a big reason why the Jazz have a 2-0 lead. Clarkson is just a pure hooper to the max, he plays off instincts and gives you buckets. He might be the sixth man but on nights like Thursday he also becomes the co-star to Donovan Mitchell because of his ability to create and score. Rudy Gobert also deserves a special mention. Donovan Mitchell is clearly the heart and soul of this Jazz team but Gobert is the anchor, his defensive presence changes the game, making the Clippers scared to go into the paint down the stretch, forcing them to kick out and make contested jumpers.

The Jazz are just the better team right now and they’re doing all this without Mike Conley (plus-7.1 Offensive Box Plus/Minus in the playoffs), who missed the first two games with a mild hamstring strain and is questionable for Saturday. Utah has a system, they defend, they have a consistent spark off the bench in Clarkson and more depth. They are gritty, head coach Quin Snyder adjusts and they have a star talent in Mitchell who loves the moment. The NBA Futures reflect this, with the Jazz at +250 to win the NBA Championship at Intertops, just behind the Nets, who are favored at +120.

The Over is 6-1 in Utah’s last seven overall and 6-1 in Utah’s last seven games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah led the league with 43.0 3-point attempts and Los Angeles ranked first, shooting 41.4 percent. The Jazz were 20-for-39 (51.3 percent) from beyond the arc in Game 2 and the Clippers shot below their regular season average (11-for-30, 36.7 percent). I can see both teams having positive regression, with Kawhi Leonard playing much better in the fourth quarter.

NBA Pick: Over 223 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.