Jazz vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 2 Odds, Preview and Pick (Archive)
The NBA Postseason is underway and the Dallas Mavericks need a win to avoid falling down 0-2 to the Utah Jazz. Below, I’ll analyze Game 2 for this series, break down the NBA odds, and share a sharp NBA pick! Let’s begin.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, April 18, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Likely No Luka Doncic Again
The Jazz escaped Dallas with a win in Game 1 on Saturday and now they look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead as they head back home for Games 3 and 4. Stealing Game 1 has already flipped home-court advantage to the Jazz, but a second win here would probably be the beginning of the end for the Mavs.
Losing two straight home games in the NBA Playoffs is basically a death sentence, especially when we don’t know if or when Luka Doncic will be able to play. He is doubtful for Game 2 after missing Game 1 and it would surprise me to see him play in Game 3 as well.
This puts the Mavs in a tough spot. Not only did they have trouble slowing down the Jazz wings in Game 1, but it also makes them so much easier to guard when you don’t have to pay attention to Doncic creating havoc.
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That being said, I think the sportsbooks are discounting the Mavs’ offense without Doncic. Even with Game 1 being lower scoring, I think we could see a resurgence in the offense for Game 2. The Jazz defense is nowhere near where it has been in the past and outside of Rudy Gobert and Royce O’Neale, this is a pretty bad defensive team.
Being without Doncic hurts, but the Mavs still have several credible offensive threats that will give Utah some issues. Jalen Brunson was only 9-for-24 in Game 1 and I doubt that continues. He should improve his efficiency in Game 2, as well as Spencer Dinwiddie, who ended up only 6-for-15 in Game 1.
The Sharp Pick
Assuming we see some increased offensive efficiency, I think the over has some value here. Dallas’ two best players likely won’t combine to shoot 15-for-39 again and while the Jazz put up some big numbers in Game 1, it was really only two players who scored most of their points.
If they can get a more balanced offense going in Game 2, this total of just 206 points is still too low, even after steaming up a couple of points since it opened.
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During the regular season, the Mavs averaged 118.7 points per 100 possessions against this Jazz defense across four games and while being without Doncic will hurt that average, all it will take in this game is for Utah to control the pace and for the other Mavs to shoot the ball better.
Assuming we get that, the over is the play for this pivotal Game 2. I don’t think the Mavs can stop Utah, but they can win if they shoot the ball better.
NBA Pick: Over 206 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.