The Wisconsin Badgers are sneaky good, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are the better choice for Saturday’s Week 9 college football picks.
Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Camp Randall Stadium
Every time I see the name “Wisconsin” when I’m betting on sports, I have the same knee-jerk reaction: Bet bet bet. America’s Dairyland is one of the least public states in the Union, let alone in the Big Ten, where the Badgers – football and basketball – play in the shadow of Michigan and Ohio State. And Michigan State. And Penn State. But not Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are part of flyover country, too, and they appear to be the right choice for Saturday’s matchup with Wisconsin, with Heritage Sports opening Iowa as 3.5-point road dogs on their NCAAF odds board.
The early consensus reports say 70 percent of bettors agree. Who are we to doubt them?
We’re journalists, that’s who we are. We’ve rounded up our usual sources, and yes, they like Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) as well. Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today only has Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) winning this game by 0.42 points, using his overall Rating system. Sagarin even has the Hawkeyes up 6.60 points according to his eigenvector analysis, which might be useful now that we’re heading into Week 9. ESPN’s Football Power Index also prefers Iowa.
They have the underdogs winning 53.7 percent of the time, so we don’t even need to bust out the almighty BMR Odds Converter to tell you the Hawkeyes have betting value – according to the computers. Or at least these computers.
Football Outsiders have Wisconsin ranked seventh overall (No. 72 offense, No. 2 defense) on their latest F+ Ratings, which speaks even more to the betting value the Badgers have stored away in their den. Iowa check in at No. 16 overall (No. 78 offense, No. 3 defense). Hmmmm... I think I see a pattern here.
How Low Can You Go? This might be a good time to mention Saturday’s total: a tiny 36.5 points at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). It’s almost a moral imperative to bet the Over anytime you get below 37 points, but we’re going to avoid it in this case – partly because the weather forecast calls only for partly cloudy skies at kick-off (and clearing as the game wears on), and partly because Sagarin projects a combined score of 33.29 points.
Anyway, there’s just too much delicious goodness waiting for us with this spread. We’ll temper our bet size to reflect the advanced stats at FO, and because Iowa DB Riley Moss (knee) will sit out this game; Moss (23 tackles, four interceptions) was absent two weeks ago when the Purdue
Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes 24-7 as 11-point road dogs. Every little bit counts when you’re betting on college football, so make it the standard single-unit bet here, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa +3.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.