Iowa State vs. LSU NCAA Tournament First Round Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Two flawed power conference teams will meet in Milwaukee for an intriguing 6/11 matchup in Friday night’s NCAA Tournament action when LSU faces Iowa State. Here is all you need to know for your NCAAB picks.
The Tigers are the higher seed and finished in a five-team logjam for fifth place in the SEC at 22-11, 9-9. LSU will be playing without its head coach, however, after Will Wade was fired following NCAA allegations.
Iowa State finished seven in the Big 12 at 20-12, 7-11 and made the tournament despite a record far below .500 in conference play. The Cyclones have gone 8-20 since a 12-0 start to the season.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. LSU Tigers
Friday, March 18, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Impressive Start, Inconsistent End
Iowa State punched its NCAA ticket in the non-conference schedule. The Cyclones swept all 12 non-conference games to open the season and posted a number of impressive wins, including Memphis (by 19), Xavier (by 12), Iowa (by 20), and Creighton.
The Cyclones went 9-8 in Quad I games this season. Only Kansas, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Baylor—three one seeds and a three—had more wins. Only Tennessee played more.
Things went downhill during the Big 12 season. Iowa State opened conference play at 1-3 and fell as low as 3-9 following a four-game losing streak in February. The Cyclones rebounded to win four straight, including Quad I foes Kansas State and TCU, before losing their last three.
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Iowa State is led by its offense. The Cyclones are No. 11 in efficiency, No. 6 in turnover rate, and No. 17 in defending the three. That will need to make up for an offense that has struggled to put up points in losing 7 of the last 11 games. Iowa State scored 44 in a home loss to TCU, 41 in a 22-point loss at Texas, and 54 in a win at TCU.
Things have bottomed out in the last three games, which include a 36-point outing in a 17-point loss at home against Oklahoma State and 41 points in a 31-point Big 12 Tournament loss to Texas Tech.
Change at the Top
LSU is a trendy upset victim in office bracket pools around the country, since the Tigers saw their head coach fired six days before tipoff after being directly named in Level I NCAA allegations against the program. Associate head coach Bill Armstrong, the likely choice for interim coach, was also fired as a result of the allegations.
Assistant Kevin Nickelberry will serve as interim coach for as long as the tournament run continues. He has a dozen years of head coaching experience at Hampton and Howard.
LSU wasn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders under Wade. The Tigers went 7-10 in the second half of the regular season and SEC Tournament.
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While the Tigers are certainly distracted by the latest drama, it’s nothing new for the program. It’s actually the second time in four years that Wade has been unable to coach for the NCAA Tournament. He was suspended following the 2019 regular season—due to another scandal. Assistant Tony Benford took over and led the Tigers to the Sweet 16.
Darius Days was a freshman on that team and will be a key component to helping LSU navigate the tournament this year. He’s second on the team in scoring at 13.7 ppg and leads the Tigers with 7.7 rebounds. He was Nickelberry’s first call after taking over as interim coach.
“He was the first person I talked with, first player I met with. I’m going to lean on him a lot,” Nickelberry said. “Darius has been through this before. So, I asked him to speak to the team. He spoke to the team, and he’s going to continue to mentor these kids and prepare them for this moment. Again, they call it a shining moment for a reason. This is a moment.”
The Pick
Iowa State has the look of one of those teams that thrives once it gets away from familiar conference opponents. The Cyclones’ defense makes them a tough NCAAB matchup, especially for a team going throw a coaching change.
Look for Iowa State to cover at the NCAAB odds and make this game a grind.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa State +4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.