How to Bet the 2022 NBA All-Star Game? Team Durant vs. Team LeBron Best Bets (Archive)
The NBA All-Star game is only a few days away and with the break started and players heading to Cleveland for the weekend, how should we attack these NBA odds in order to make a profit on the All-Star Game itself? Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Team Durant vs. Team LeBron
Sunday, February 20, 2022 – 8:00 PM EST at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
NBA All-Star Notes on New Format
In the last two years, the NBA has implemented a new format in the All-Star game that has led to more competitive games and, surprisingly, a little bit of defense down the stretch as the teams try to end the game.
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The now-famed Elam Ending, created by Ball State professor Nick Elam has been a pretty big hit at the last two All-Star games and in other basketball settings like TBT and a few others. Long story short, if you’ve been under a rock the last few years, the Elam Ending essentially turns the clock off in the fourth quarter.
The first three quarters are played as normal, then, to start the fourth quarter, the clock is turned off and the “target score,” is set by adding a predetermined number of points to the team’s score that is leading after three quarters.
In order to honor the legacy of Kobe Bryant, the NBA has made the final target score 24 points higher than the team’s score at the end of three quarters. So, if Team LeBron is leading 130-128 at the end of three quarters, the target score would then be 154 points to end the game. The first team to make it wins.
So, in this scenario, without any time on the clock, the first team to reach 154 points wins, regardless of how much time it takes to get there. The first time they instituted the rule in 2020, the game was extremely competitive and ended up being one of the more exciting All-Star Games in recent memory.
Last year the score wasn’t as close at the end of the three quarters, but after the target score was made, you could tell the intensity of the game changed, even though the score wasn’t as tight.
Considering Team LeBron has not lost one of these games since the inception of the team captains and giving up the East versus West format, I can imagine Team Durant (sans their team’s namesake due to injury) wants to shut up Bron and his squad for this being the fifth straight year of team captains picking teams.
The Sharp Pick
That being said, betting on a spread for an exhibition basketball game is pretty much exclusively gambling. You may think you have a small edge, but in reality, you’re mostly gambling. However, the total is another story. I think there could be some nice value on this total, even though defense may not be as intense during the first three quarters.
That being said, there are a few first-time All-Star in this game that may want to steal the show, and the longer this game stays close, the more defense we should see as we approach the final frame. The undefeated Team LeBron has scored 170 or more in two of the last three All-Star Games, but one of those was with traditional 12 minute quarters all the way through.
The two games with Elam Endings have both had 320 points or less and the only reason last year’s target score was so high was the fact that the game wasn’t close. Assuming we don’t see one team pull away too much, 321 points is too much for this game.
Getting both teams above 100 points through three quarters is almost a guarantee, but, scoring more than 125-130 points through three quarters may be tough for these two teams, even with little to no defense.
There will obviously be lots of wide-open dunks and the pace will be fast, but these guys are also going to attempt some 40-foot bombs as well that will miss, and assuming the game is close at the half, I expect the third quarter and target score time to be heavier on defense.
NBA Pick: Under 321 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.