Houston vs. Villanova NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
A five-seed has never won the NCAA Tournament in its history. However, the Houston Cougars, as a five-seed, are the NCAAB odds favorites to win the tournament currently.
Can Villanova find a way to end Houston’s miraculous run? Here is all you need to know for your NCAAB picks.
Houston Cougars vs. Villanova Wildcats
Saturday, March 26, 2022 – 06:09 PM EDT at AT&T Center
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The Houston Cougars are probably one of the best five-seeds ever in March Madness. But you should also know that a five-seed has never won the NCAA Tournament. Why?
Likely due to the fact that a five-seed has to (usually) play a 12-seed, 4-seed, 1-seed, 2-seed, and then two more games in the Final Four and Championship. It’s a hard road with no easy game. Those 12-seeds are always massive killers and are usually in great shape to put together an upset.
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But like I said, Houston is just different. The Cougars are shooting a 53.6% effective field goal percentage while earning 37.7% offensive rebounds. Houston is dominant on the glass and still shoots at a high percentage, hitting 34.5% from deep and 54.9% from inside the arc.
Houston hasn’t been getting to the foul line very often and that’s probably a good thing. The Cougars are shooting just 66.7% from the foul line this season and that’s ultimately the one area where Houston has struggled this season on the offensive end.
Villanova, on the other hand, is holding teams to 30.7% from deep and 48.1% from inside the arc. The Wildcats aren’t going to dominate the glass or earn a whole bunch of turnovers but Villanova is average in those categories and keeps themselves away from fouling at a high rate.
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On the offensive end, Villanova is the best free-throw shooting team in the nation. The Wildcats are shooting 82.6% from the foul line and that rate could end up being the best rate in college basketball history.
Villanova is also shooting 36% from deep and 50.4% from inside the arc while earning 31.1% offensive rebounds. The Wildcats are very good with the ball, only turning it over 15.5% of the time. If Villanova is able to limit turnovers and turn Houston’s aggressive defense into aggressive fouls, the Wildcats will be well on their way to victory.
Houston, however, is holding teams to 28.9% from deep and 43.7% from inside the arc. Nothing comes easy against Houston, but Villanova should be able to get a large portion of points from the foul line in this game.
Prediction
It’s rare that we see a five-seed listed as a favorite against a two-seed in the same region. But that’s what we’re seeing in tonight’s game. Villanova is a short underdog against Houston.
Games are won at the foul line plenty of times. It matters in close games. Overall, both teams play very well defensively but Villanova is able to limit fouls while Houston fouls way more.
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Houston likely won’t be able to get Villanova off-balanced and out of rhythm to force a whole lot of mistakes. After all, Villanova only turns the ball over 15.5% of the time.
So I’ll grab Villanova at +2.5 here with one of BMR's best sportsbooks. I also wouldn’t mind taking Villanova on the moneyline.
Score Prediction: Villanova 67 - Houston 62
NCAAB Pick: Villanova +2.5 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NCAAB Prop Pick: Villanova Team Total Over 62.5 (-110) at The Best Online Sportsbooks
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.