Hawks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 2 Preview and Pick (Archive)
The early birds put the Over in their NBA picks, so it’s time to take the other side for Tuesday’s Atlanta Hawks-Miami Heat matchup.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena
Timing is everything. Here I was ready to recommend the Atlanta Hawks as 7.5-point road faves or better for Tuesday’s Game 2 first-rounder with the Miami Heat.
Sadly, it looks like the sharps already got there as usual; at press time, the Hawks are down to +7.
That’s still enough for a slight lean, perhaps, but here at the ranch, we’re looking at that total instead for your NBA picks.
The sharps have already pounded this one as well. Tuesday’s total opened at 217 points on the NBA odds board at Heritage Sports, down from 220.5 points in Game 1 when Miami (–6.5 at home) blew out the Hawks 115-91.
The Over was definitely the right early-bird play for the rematch, but that time has come and gone, and the line has moved back up to 219.5 points. Let’s see if we can take advantage.
No Foolin’ Around
There’s always some merit to taking the under once the NBA playoffs start. These games tend to be a lot more physical than they were in the regular season; the stakes and the competition level both go up, and the officials put their eyes in their pockets along with their whistles.
At press time, the under is 9-4 since the start of the play-in round, including Sunday’s Hawks-Heat opener.
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Before directly applying that betting logic to your forehead, it’s important to look at the results from Game 1 and see how the two clubs shot from behind the arc.
The Hawks were atypically poor at 10-for-36 (27.8 percent), which leaves plenty of room for positive regression, but the Heat shot 18-for-38 (47.4 percent), so they’re likely to cool off Tuesday night. Call it a wash for these high-variance attempts.
Swiss Watch
It seems strange to say this, but the absence of Clint Capela (knee) for the Hawks plays into our hands.
Capela built a reputation as a sound defender in his first tour of NBA duty with the Houston Rockets, but for the most part (especially since his arrival in Atlanta), his defense has been league-average.
Nothing wrong with league average, mind you. With Capela on the shelf, some of those center minutes go to sophomore Onyeka Okongwu, which should improve Atlanta’s truculence while also limiting their scoring.
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The Hawks also get a boost on the defensive front with Delon Wright scooping up those back-up point guard minutes while “Sweet” Lou Williams (back) is out of commission – although Wright also improves their offense somewhat.
Now let’s see if the Heat goes and spoils our fun. Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) and P.J. Tucker (calf) have both just been listed as questionable for Game 2, as has backup center Dewayne Dedmon (ankle).
Those are three of Miami’s top defenders. All three played in Game 1, so this might just be the Heat exercising some caution, or throwing smoke at Atlanta.
Wait for the morning shoot-around just in case; maybe Tuesday’s total will keep rising before tip-off, too.
NBA Pick: Under 219.5 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.