Giants vs. Mets Free MLB Picks and Preview (Archive)
Editor’s Note: The game was postponed due to weather conditions. Will be played on Tuesday as part of a double-header.
The San Francisco Giants will travel to Queens, New York for an exciting series between the Giants and the New York Mets. The Giants are currently 7-2 while the Mets are currently 7-3 heading into this series.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Monday, April 18, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Even if one team swept the other, the other team would still be above. 500 when the series concluded.
The Mets
Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets to start the series. Megill is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA through two starts. He obviously leads the majors in most categories in the MLB and he’s looking to carry all of that momentum over into this game. Dating back to last year, Megill has a 4.04 xFIP with 26.5% strikeouts and 6.5% walks. He’s also limited line-drive contact and gets nearly 45% of ground balls.
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The Giants have one of the best lineups in baseball. It’s not a flashy lineup but it’s a lineup that just gets the job done. Dating back to last season, the Giants projected lineup has a .233 ISO and wOBA of .353 with 10.3% walks against righties. Strikeouts are high at 26.2% but overall, the Giants rake against righties.
Megill has had his struggles against lefties allowing a .387 wOBA and ISO of .272 but righties have been having trouble against Megill.
The Giants
On the other hand, Alex Cobb will get the call for this matchup. He’s been one of the more underrated pitchers in the game and the Giants snagged him up from the Angels in the off-season. Cobb has a 3.60 xFIP with 25.5% strikeouts dating back to last season. Walks are a bit high at 8.4% but Cobb gets 52.7% ground balls to limit the damage.
The Mets were obviously a poor offense last season and don’t have the numbers that the Giants have dating back to last year offensively. Only Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Eduardo Escobar have legitimate consistent power against righties. Still, when the Mets make contact, 22.2% of that contact has been line drives.
The total for this game is sitting at 6.5, but juiced up to -125. This is one of the lowest totals we’ve seen this season.
Prediction
There were moments last year when Alex Cobb was a bit unlucky with ground balls becoming base hits. He struggled a bit with runners on base too. Meanwhile, Megill isn’t going to finish the season with a 0.00 ERA. He’s had his struggles against lefties and will need to face at least five lefties in the Giants’ lineup.
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The Giants have smacked righties dating back to last year and have the offense to power through a Mets bullpen that has been a bit weak so far. Grab the over 6.5 at -125. A 4-3 win gets you a win for the over. Don't forget to take a look at BMR's rating guide.
MLB Pick: Over 6.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.