The Los Angeles Dodgers are bargain-priced on Thursday’s MLB odds board with the San Francisco Giants coming to town.
Thursday 22, July, 2021– 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
How often do you get a chance to bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers for value? Not very often. The defending champions are usually overpriced when they take the diamond – but not this Thursday when they welcome the San Francisco Giants to Chavez Ravine. As I write this, the Dodgers have just opened as –165 home favorites on the MLB odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) , and as they say, a bargain like this won’t last long. So let’s cut to the chase.
The Giants (59-35, plus-19.18 betting units heading into Wednesday’s action) might be the only team we can properly fade in this situation. They’re one game ahead of the Dodgers (59-37, minus-4.89 units) in the National League West, but L.A. have the better run differential – 30 runs better at plus-151. That translates to an expected won-loss record of 64-32 for our heroes, compared to 61-33 for those scallywags up north.
To verify the presumed value of our MLB picks, we like to use the freely available projections at FiveThirtyEight, home of the inestimable Nate Silver. They’ve got L.A. winning this game 64 percent of the time, for a fair moneyline of –178 using the greatest gambling calculator since Pascal’s wheel, the BMR Odds Converter. Getting the champs at –155 on a 20-cent moneyline? Yes please.
We haven’t even gotten into the pitching matchup yet. Walker Buehler (3.35 FIP) is due up for Los Angeles, and he’s pretty good; the current and two-time All-Star has a team record of 13-6 this year, although he’s generated just 0.46 units in earnings – testament to how chalky the Dodgers have been. That includes a 10-3 record in Buehler’s last 13 starts. He is so choice.
Not that there’s anything wrong with Anthony DeSclafani (3.64 FIP). The Giants are also 13-6 in his 19 starts thus far, but without all that chalk, DeSclafani has generated 6.98 units in profit. He would make San Francisco the obvious value pick, if they weren’t magically ahead of the Dodgers in the standings. This is a “sell high” on the Giants instead.
We should also point out that both projected starters have enjoyed some good luck this year, judging by their peripheral stats: Buehler: .231 BABIP, 82.6% LOB DeSclafani: .234 BABIP, 81.2% LOB Once again, eerily similar numbers, but Buehler’s are much closer to his career average: Buehler: .259 BABIP, 75.5% LOB DeSclafani: .291 BABIP, 73.3% LOB There you have it.
The Dodgers also have the better bullpen of the two teams by a fair margin, and a bit more pop in their batting order, so yes, we’ll buy that for a dollar. Other books are wading in now with L.A. at around –166, which still isn’t bad, but get them at this bargain price if you still can, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Dodgers –165 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.