Even with two amazing pitchers, the Over is a decent MLB pick for Friday’s tilt between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants.
Friday, August 06, 2021 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Welcome to Milwaukee – the City of Champions. Not only did the Milwaukee Bucks claim their first NBA title in 50 years,
Fine, so nobody’s paying much attention to the Brew Crew. But that will only enhance their betting value this Friday when they host the 68-40 San Francisco Giants, holders of the best record in baseball at press time, and the National League’s most profitable MLB pick at plus-22.26 units. Then again, are people even paying attention to the Giants? It seems like the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers have stolen all the headlines in the National League West. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and get to know the real story behind this matchup.
As always, the quants are here to clarify matters. FiveThirtyEight project Milwaukee’s chances of winning Friday’s contest at 59 percent; the impressive BMR Odds Converter says that’s the same as –144, no vig attached. The Giants haven’t officially named a starter yet, so the MLB lines for this game are slow to hit the board, but the best price we’re seeing on Milwaukee overseas is –154. This will not do.
Sadly, we can’t recommend the Giants at +140 either, so once again, we turn to the total, which looks like it will open at seven runs once our preferred online sportsbooks weigh in. Seven runs isn’t a lot, but that’s understandable, given that Corbin Burnes (1.50 FIP) is taking the mound for Milwaukee. Here’s the thing, though: Burnes has the Over at 9-6-2 this year, including 6-0-1 in his last seven starts with a line attached. His spin rate is down significantly since the league-wide crackdown on sticky substances. Cause, meet effect.
And yet Burnes and the Brewers keep winning. It helps when you’ve got a talented batting order, ranking No. 11 in the majors at plus-15.0 WAR according to FanGraphs. That will help our cause, too, even if former National League MVP Christian Yelich (.748 OPS) isn’t expected back from the COVID-19 list until sometime this weekend.
As for the Giants, it may not be official yet, but Logan Webb (3.34 FIP) is tentatively penciled in for Friday, and that’s not so good for us: Webb has the Under at 9-5 in his 14 starts. But even here we have hope, given Webb’s unsustainably low .203 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) on his groundballs, which have been plentiful. San Francisco also
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.