Flames vs. Stars Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 3 Odds, Preview, and Free Pick (Archive)
The Western Conference first-round Stanley Cup playoff series between the Flames and Stars shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday. NHL Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars
Saturday, May 7, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
What Are the Odds?
There are four Stanley Cup playoff games Saturday and this is the latest one – shown on TNT.
With the Flames-Stars tied 1-1, Calgary is -275 on the series line at BMR’s top-rated books with Dallas at +230.
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The favored exact result is Flames in six at +270 and that would be my betting pick right now.
On the series spread, Stars at +1.5 games is -120, and Flames at -1.5 is -110. That it ends in six games is a +155 leader.
Who Is Winning and Who Is Not
The Flames and Stars played three regular-season games this year but the only one in Dallas was on Feb. 1, and the Flames won 4-3 as part of a franchise-record-tying 10-game winning streak.
Dallas led the game 3-1 with about six minutes left, but then the Flames got goals from Andrew Mangiapane at 14:36 of the third, Johnny Gaudreau at 15:13, and the winner from Oliver Kylington at 18:13.
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Kylington had just left the penalty box and helped create a 3-on-1 break to beat Stars goalie Jake Oettinger.
Calgary put 18 shots on Oettinger in the third period. Jacob Markstrom started for Calgary but was replaced after the second period by backup Dan Vladar.
The favorite is 6-2 on the NHL odds in the past six meetings.
High-Scoring Flames Being Stymied
This was one of the highest-scoring NHL seasons in many years, but playoff hockey is simply different with defense such a priority.
Let's see some numbers of this hockey playoff:
- Calgary was a terrific offensive team during the regular season, averaging 3.55 goals per game, which would have led the league in 2020-21 but was sixth this year.
- The Flames had two 100-point scorers in Johnny Gaudreau (115 points) and Matthew Tkachuk (104).
- Yet for all that firepower, Calgary has one goal in the two games vs. Dallas and that came early in the first period of Game 1, which the Flames won 1-0.
- They put 29 shots on Jake Oettinger in Game 2 on Thursday but couldn’t solve him to lose 2-0 and also lose home-ice advantage in the series.
Gaudreau had just two shots on goal and Tkachuk one. Gaudreau did appear to score just 43 seconds in on a breakaway, but the play was whistled offside.
When Will Be the Best Time for the Flamers in This Matchup?
Other than that, the Flames’ best scoring chance might have been early in the third when Stars defenseman Jani Hakanpaa hit his own post on a clearing attempt.
“Just gotta score, gotta bear down and put the puck in the net, starting with myself,” said Gaudreau, who had 11 shot attempts but only two on the net -- four were blocked and five missed the target.
“We had plenty of chances to put the puck in the net. We didn’t. That’s the bottom line.”
It’s not like Jacob Markstrom has played badly, allowing one goal on 38 shots in this series.
Calgary was trying to go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series for the first time since the 2004 conference finals vs. San Jose.
The Flames are 9-12 overall in best-of-seven series that is tied 1-1 and 4-8 when they started a series at home.
Calgary is 7-3 on the NHL picks in its past 10 on the road.
Oettinger Brilliant for Stars
No question that stars netminder Jake Oettinger has been fantastic in this series in stopping 54 of 55 shots, including 49 straight.
He has an active shutout streak of 114:59 - the fifth-longest in Stars/North Stars playoff history.
At 23 years and 139 days in Game 2, Oettinger became the second-youngest goaltender in franchise history to win a playoff game after Don Beaupre (19 years, 202 days) in Game 2 of the 1981 first round with the Minnesota North Stars.
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The Stars also have been terrific in blocking shots, being physical (they need to be physical as Calgary is much faster and better offensively), and keeping the Flames out of the crease.
Dallas finished with 36 hits and 20 blocked shots in Game 2. Calgary had a 65-34 advantage in shot attempts. It was shut out just twice in the regular season.
"That's how we have to play," Stars coach Rick Bowness said. "We have to grind it out with them. We had to get more physical, there's no question.”
Joe Pavelski scored the first goal in Game 2 at 7:47 of the first and Michael Raffl added the clincher late in the third on an empty net.
Stars' Seasons
Pavelski (37 years, 298 days) became the oldest player to score a playoff goal for the Stars since Mike Modano (37 years, 342 days) in Game 4 of the 2008 conference finals.
This is the Stars’ first playoff game in Dallas since May 2019 in the West semifinals against St. Louis.
You might be saying: “Wait, didn’t the Stars reach the Stanley Cup Final in 2020?” Indeed they did, but remember that entire postseason was played inside the bubble in Canada. Dallas missed the 2021 playoffs.
I slightly lean the Stars at home for a side pick but much prefer the total. The under is 6-2 in the Stars’ past eight at home on the betting odds and 6-2-1 in Calgary’s past nine on the road.
NHL Pick: Under 5.5 goals (-130) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.