MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a big 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday including one doubleheader. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate available at top sportsbooks.
These best bets and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a total in the Windy City Wednesday with the Dodgers visiting the White Sox.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 26, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
In a matchup of two supposed backend rotation starters each having quietly good seasons, we are supporting the Under when Erick Fedde and the lowly White Sox host Gavin Stone and the Dodgers.
White Sox Have Big 2?
The White Sox have the worst record in baseball and have won just 21 games all season. However, two of their starters have combined for over half of their wins. One of them is no surprise, as Garrett Crochet has been one of the best pitchers in the American League while recording six wins. The other half of their potential Big 2 has been Fedde, who is back in the Major Leagues after pitching in Korea last year.
After a mediocre first six seasons in the majors, Erick was an All-Star in Korea going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 2.29 xFIP. Apparently, he learned some nice lessons there as he is now having his best Major League season with a 5-2 record for a last-place team supported by a 3.05 ERA and 3.68 xFIP. He has improved his K/BB ratio over his previous career in the majors to 8.20/2.29 per nine innings while sporting a nice 47.6% groundball rate.
The biggest key to Fedde’s improvement is developing an excellent slider while pitching overseas, and that pitch has garnered an outstanding Stuff+ rating of 128. That pitch alone makes this a better version of Fedde than he was before heading overseas.
Facing Terrible Offense
Stone has good numbers for a fourth or fifth starter as he is a surprising 8-2 with a 3.04 ERA. However, we are not as high on his long-term prospects as we are on Fedde, as Stone has a noticeably higher 4.08 xFIP and a moderate strikeout rate of 7.09/9.
Still, Gavin has a chance to continue masking those peripherals well here against the worst offense in baseball. The White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the majors by a nice margin, with 30 fewer runs than the 29th-place Marlins.
The Pick
As you would expect, the ChiSox are dead last in wRC+ against right-handers at a meager 76 and last in OPS against them at .620. Therefore, we expect both starting pitchers to have success in this spot and we are betting the Under in Chicago Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 4 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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