Kyle Gibson and the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies can beat the MLB odds this Wednesday when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers on ESPN.
Wednesday 11, August, 2021 – 7:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
What happened to the National League East? It looked like there were three quality teams in this division when the 2021 Major League Baseball season got underway. Now, there’s only one: the Philadelphia Phillies. And they’re still the weakest of the six division leaders by a wide margin, carrying a 59-53 record (plus-4.68 betting units) into Tuesday’s action.
That suits our MLB picks just fine. The Phillies have won eight straight games as we go to press, but they still have plenty of betting value for Wednesday’s matchup with the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers (67-45, minus-9.05 units). BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) have Philadelphia pegged at +129 on their MLB odds board, up from +123 at the open. Maybe that trend will continue and you’ll get a better price closer to first pitch.
Now, if you’ve been reading this space much, you’ve seen us both fade and follow the Dodgers this year. They got off to an unusually slow start, which we used to our advantage when they started winning again. Once L.A. got on the right track, we were more inclined to fade them – or take the Under, based on their incredible starting rotation. Things aren’t so cut-and-dried now. The Dodgers have all the talent in the world – even more so after loading up at the trade deadline – but they’re still losing a lot of close games.
And I mean a lot: The defending champs are 13-20 in one-run contests, and a ridiculous 1-11 in extra innings. That’s mostly bad luck, which should regress to the mean, but it’s also closer Kenley Jansen (3.58 FIP), who has already blown five saves this year. Jansen isn’t the pitcher he used to be before the Houston Astros got to him during the 2017 World Series, and his irregular heartbeat started acting up again the following year.
The Dodgers may be hard to pin down, but they’re still very much the public team in Wednesday’s contest. And their rotation is still missing both Clayton Kershaw (forearm) and Trevor Bauer (administrative leave), which leaves David Price taking the mound against Philly. Price (4.21 FIP) has done a decent job in this reduced role, but he was originally put in the bullpen for a reason, and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning since his promotion. Even five innings might be a bit of a stretch. Enter Kyle Gibson (3.72 FIP).
The All-Star northpaw has a team record of 12-9 this year for 4.09 units in profit – mostly with the awful Texas Rangers, who shipped Gibson to the Phillies on July 30. Two starts later, Gibson is 2-0 for his new employers, giving up just three earned runs in 12.2 innings of work. That’s impressive enough for FiveThirtyEight to project Philly’s chances of victory at 46 percent, which comes out to +117 (vig-free) when you run it through the almighty BMR Odds Converter. Getting them at +129 sure looks like a bargain. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Phillies +129 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.