Over 9 (+100)
Dodgers vs. Braves: Mr. Anderson (Archive)
Is the Over worth putting in our MLB picks this Friday when Julio Urias and the L.A. Dodgers visit Ian Anderson and the Atlanta Braves.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday 4th June 2021 7:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
It might finally be time to jump off the Los Angeles Dodgers bandwagon. We did quite well here at the ranch putting the Dodgers in our MLB picks; we bought low when they were at the front end of their recent 12-1 run, and we bought them again near the tail end. But now that the defending World Series champions are back in business, the betting market appears to have caught up. Rats.
That’s according to the projections at FiveThirtyEight. Their computers have the Dodgers winning Friday’s game against the Atlanta Braves 54 percent of the time, which works out to –117 using the great and powerful BMR Odds Converter. Meanwhile, BetOnline have just opened Los Angeles at –118 on their MLB odds board as we go to press. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted.
Urias Heap
There will always be totals. The Dodgers (33-23, minus-6.50 units) have the Over at 30-25-1 this year, and the Braves (26-28, minus-7.25 units) have it at 28-24-2, including 18-11-2 at their completely unnecessary new ballpark in Cobb County. And conveniently enough, the Dodgers are at the back end of their rotation with Julio Urias on the mound – even if he’s got a 2.99 FIP on the season, tops among L.A. starters.
The Over is 8-2-1 in his 11 starts thus far. However, since it’s Urias on the mound and not, say, Trevor Bauer (Under 8-4), Friday’s total has opened at nine runs, which is pretty high for a Dodgers game. We might need some help from Atlanta’s projected starter, Ian Anderson (3.66 FIP), and we might not get it; Anderson has the over/under at 5-5 this year. If only there were some kind of angle we could exploit for this matchup.
Wait For It
Oh look, here’s one: Anderson was supposed to start Thursday’s game against the Washington Nationals, but they called Tucker Davidson up from AAA-Gwinnet instead. Good call. Davidson held the Nats to one hit over 5.2 innings, leading Atlanta to the pay window as –135 home faves. But that short-term gain could come at the expense of Anderson, who has to alter his routine to get ready for L.A.
Urias and the Dodgers, meanwhile, have had plenty of time prepare – they were off Thursday. And that stupidly redundant ballpark they’ll be playing in has been kind to hitters, posting a 1.109 park factor for runs over at ESPN.
The weather gods aren’t exactly in our favor; it’ll be a hot night in Atlanta, but muggy as well, with very little wind to speak of. On the plus side, the barometric pressure should be low at game time, and both these bullpens have been average at best, so yes, let’s put a small sum on the Over and see what happens.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.