Bulls vs. Bucks Free NBA Picks for March 22 (Archive)
The Milwaukee Bucks are a must for your NBA picks this Tuesday night when they host the over-valued Chicago Bulls.
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Sometimes I wonder how the Chicago Bulls do it. This is a flawed team in many respects, but a successful one nonetheless at 42-29 SU and a tasty 38-32-1 ATS, good enough for fifth place in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls are also starting to get healthy at just the right time. Patrick Williams made his long-awaited return Monday night against the visiting Toronto Raptors, helping Chicago prevail 113-99 as 4-point home favorites.
Chicago will make the quick turnaround and visit the Milwaukee Bucks (44-27 SU, 33-38 ATS), who have decided to give Khris Middleton the night off – officially because of a sore left wrist, but really as more of a precautionary measure.
The betting public appears to have over-reacted to this decision; as we go to press, the Bucks are 5.5-point home faves on the NBA odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) – way below their projections for this matchup.
Khrispy Kreme
Not that we should trust these projections too much. They appear to have been made before the Middleton decision was announced; FiveThirtyEight had Milwaukee winning by 10.5 points, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index pegged their chances at 74.9 percent, which is pretty close to –8.5 according to Wizard of Odds.
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That’s a lot of points either way. Would Middleton’s absence account for the difference between the projections and the NBA lines? He may be an All-Star, but he’s a fringe All-Star at best, posting a plus-1.8 Box Plus/Minus at Basketball-Reference.
Taking Middleton out of the equation isn’t ideal for Milwaukee, but it’s hardly a death sentence – especially when you’ve got former MVP (and current candidate) Giannis Antetokounmpo on your side.
Hey Ayo
Getting back to the Bulls for the moment, they did make another important roster change for Monday’s game, putting Alex Caruso (plus-0.9 BPM) in the starting lineup ahead of rookie guard Ayo Dosunmu (minus-1.7 BPM).
They have chosen... wisely. The Bulls were thin on defense and very happy to get Caruso back off the injured list; now they can maximize both his minutes and his skills while protecting Dosunmu from over-exposure.
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It definitely worked out well for them Monday night. Chicago snapped a three-game losing streak SU and ATS, but let’s not get too bent out of shape over it. The Raptors were playing the second of back-to-back road games, and they were without two starters in OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr., among others.
Now it’s the Bulls who will be playing on zero days of rest, with the added travel between games. So the main question here isn’t whether to put Milwaukee in your NBA picks, but for how much. That will depend in large part on what price you can get the Bucks at.
Our eagle-eyed staff here at the home office saw Milwaukee open at –7.5 overseas, and they were briefly available at –6.5 on these shores. Maybe those betting odds will move even closer to Chicago as we approach tip-off. If they do, bet more. If they don’t, bet less. That’s just science.
NBA Pick: Bucks -5.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.