Bucks vs. Magic NBA Pick: A Kingdom of Defense Will Reign in Orlando

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Damian Lillard #0 of the Milwaukee Bucks is defended by Cole Anthony #50 and Paolo Banchero #5 of the Orlando Magic during a game at Fiserv Forum on April 10, 2024. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

It’s the last day of the regular season and after scouring the NBA odds at the top sportsbooks, I will recommend investing in the total going Under between the Bucks and Magic.

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NBA Pick: Under 214.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 214.5 (-110)
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic

Sunday, April 14, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Kia Center

Orlando’s Composure

Down the stretch, this young Orlando team has struggled, to an extent, to exhibit its usual composure. These struggles have been apparent strictly on the road. At home, however, they’ve been locked in defensively.

In their home games since March 27, they allowed: 

  • 101 points to Golden State
  • 100 to the Clippers
  • 88 to Memphis
  • 103 to Portland
  • 98 to Chicago

That is a consistent success.

When they last hosted Milwaukee, they allowed 97 points. In that game, on November 11, Giannis scored 35 points and Damian Lillard did not play. Giannis will sit out today; Lillard is listed as “probable” with soreness in his left adductor.

The key takeaway is that Orlando’s defense is reliable at home, no less against a Milwaukee offense that it can evidently lock down.

Orlando’s Perimeter Defense

The Magic can limit Milwaukee’s offense because they match up well against it. Milwaukee primarily wants to shoot threes – the Bucks attempt the fifth-most threes per game. Orlando’s perimeter defense is strong because of its schematic variety that befuddles opposing offenses, its length, its pressure and its activity.

The Magic rank third in limiting three-point attempts overall and limiting wide-open three-point attempts. These stats indicate their ability to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point attempts.

With Giannis absent, the Magic will have an even easier time guarding opposing three-point shooters because they won’t have to worry about the unique threat that he poses in the paint.

Orlando’s One-Dimensional Offense

Orlando is allergic to attempting threes.

The Magic lack efficient shooters and therefore rank toward the bottom in both three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage. Jalen Suggs is efficient for them but he’s only good for two or three threes per game.

Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony are all examples of their highest-volume three-point shooters – not that they attempt many – who convert fewer than 34% of their three-pointers.

Instead of attempting threes, the Magic want to score inside. They attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

Milwaukee’s Defense

The Bucks are still comfortable employing the drop coverage that they’ve long been associated with. The main thing is that, led by Brook Lopez at center, they have the personnel to protect the rim.

Milwaukee matches up well against the Magic because it allows the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.

NBA Pick: Under 214.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 214.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.