The Cleveland Browns take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a highly anticipated Week 5 contest that is seeing some of the most significant and revealing line movement on the NFL odds board this week. Books went to press with a coy market, floating a pick’em line for this Sunday’s AFC showdown featuring two NextGen quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
Sunday, October 10, 2021 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
By going with a pick’em line, bookmakers have essentially allowed the public to temper the market with the flow of the betting. And the public has spoken. Since Sunday, the line has swung in the direction of……wait for it…..drumroll….. Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who’ve jumped out to -1.5 with most top-rated online sportsbooks. Some are already showing a 2-point spread for this game.
Justin Herbert, the reigning AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, is proving to be a bit of a giant-slayer in the game, and a promising talent that is high praise and recognition from his peers and expert NFL analysts. Some have gone so far as to suggest he’s a Future Hall of Fame quarterback, which is the ultimate praise, indeed.
The moment Herbert proved he was the real deal came in Week 3 when he led the LA Chargers to the 30-24 upset over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. In his debut in Week 2 of last season, Herbert faced the Chiefs, and he very nearly delivered the upset then. From the moment the young gunslinger took to the field, a star was born, and he hasn’t been disappointed.
Last week, Herbert led the Chargers to the commanding 28-14 victory over the (then undefeated) Las Vegas Raiders, outduelling Derek Carr, who, up to that point, had been doing a good impression of being one of the best quarterbacks in the league…. until he wasn’t.
As a result, the Chargers are riding a two-game winning streak into Week 5, and sitting lotus atop the AFC West standings with a 3-1 record and a 2-0 record against division opponents. For first-year head coach Brandon Staley, things couldn’t be going any better.
The Cleveland Browns are off to a solid 3-1 start on the season, a run of form underscored by a three-game winning streak. The Browns recovered nicely from a Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, and the Minnesota Vikings.
On the heels of this positive run of form, the Browns are on pace in the AFC North and mired in a three-way tie with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals at the top of the standings. However, things aren’t as rosy as they seem. To begin with, the Browns haven’t beaten a quality opponent, and in two of their games their three games they struggled.
The Browns trailed the Texans until Tyrod Taylor exited the game with a hamstring injury in the first half. The following week they roughed up a Chicago Bears side that was debuting rookie Justin Fields, all the while arming him with a gameplan that was shockingly inadequate and earned Matt Nagy criticism from every single corner of the NFL. Most recently, they played a horrible game in Minnesota and only just eked out the 14-7 win.
Secondly, Baker Mayfield was wholly off form and off-color in Cleveland’s win over Minnesota. His throws were errant and inaccurate and he made a ton of mistakes that suggest not all is right with the signal-caller. When asked if he was playing injured, he declined to comment. But it certainly looks like something is wrong. Thirdly, Cleveland’s defense is ranked amongst the best in the league right now.
But how easy is it to look good against lesser opponents? Getting the better of a couple of 1-3 SU teams and a 2-2 SU team is hardly a ringing endorsement. Not to mention the fact that the defense faced Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, Justin Fields, and Kirk Cousins over the course of this three-game winning streak. It is hardly what you’d call a catalog of household names.
The jury has to be out on the Cleveland Browns right now, and not until they actually beat a quality opponent, will bettors get a true handle on Kevin Stefanski’s side. They’re coached well enough, the defense is good enough, and the offense is adequate enough…to beat inferior opponents. How good are they against better teams? Well, they did lose to the Chiefs in Week 1, didn’t they? So, not so great.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that the Browns will never get a statement win. They’re bound to win one of these big games one day. However, if Mayfield plays like he did last week in Minnesota, the Browns are going to be in trouble at SoFi Stadium, on Sunday.
The Chargers’ defense is the real deal, and they can give Mayfield something to think about. On the flip side, if Herbert and the offense can keep up the momentum, they’ll shred the Browns defense on the way to victory. The Chargers’ offense is exciting and potent, and Herbert’s confidence, poise, and prowess in the pocket belie his young years.
He’s the kind of quarterback that deals with the pressure well and puts his team on his back to go out and win a game. So, if you’re betting this game, take the Chargers as the -1.5 point home chalk for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-109) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.