With the series tied at 1-1, Milwaukee and Atlanta head south for a crucial Game 3, The winner will be one game away from playing for a National League title, but these teams are evenly matched.
If you are looking for a lot of scoring, this series probably is not going to deliver, at least so far. We have seen a grand total of six runs thus far on just 22 hits. Not exactly slow-pitch softball material to this point.
Maybe a change of venue will help but the top sportsbooks are not counting on it with the total at 8.The betting odds at GT Bets favor Atlanta at -115, yet, Braves backers can hardly be excited about this with your typical home field advantage is -125. Let’s take a close look at what both teams need to do to win.
Monday, October 11, 2021 – 01:07 PM EDT at Truist Park
For Milwaukee to win not only this contest but the series, the offense has to show up. Despite the fact the Brewers have done almost nothing in this series and in their last seven games averaging 3.0 runs a game, there is reason for hope.
Manager Craig Counsel’s club had the second-best road record in baseball at 50-31. This explains part of the reason why the money line is so low for Atlanta, who also is just 42-38 at home. Part of the Brew Crew’s success comes from hitting better away from home in scoring 4.8 RPG, which was 8th in the majors for road teams. While this might seem unusual, because the old Miller Park (now named American Family Field) should be conducive to scoring, it has not worked out that way.
Another plus for Milwaukee is they are facing a right-handed starter in Ian Anderson (9-5. 3.58 ERA) and they are 76-48 vs. RH starters and scoring 4.9 RPG, compared to 20-20 against LH starters at 3.3 RPG.
Atlanta have to be pleased to be back home where they are 7th in ringing up runs among home teams. The reason why the Braves have a poorer home record is their bullpen didn’t do the job at Truist Park.
Freddie Freeman and company will look to attack Brewers’ pitching and build a lead as they did Saturday. The Braves are 5th in balls taken out of the park in baseball when at home and will attempt to place the pressure on Milwaukee to match runs.
With Bravos bullpen run of the mill, their best success will come when they have a working margin of say two or three runs going into the seventh or eighth inning. If the pen stumbles a bit in those circumstances, they can more often than not overcome a slip-up. If Brian Snitker’s squad is up only a run or tied, that’s when the situation is dicey.
As mentioned, Anderson goes for Atlanta and he’ll be opposed by Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81) for Milwaukee. Both teams have played great with their starters in road/home scenarios, with Peralta and the Crew 9-3 on the road (2.70 ERA) and Anderson with his Braves teammates 9-3 (3.52 ERA) at home.
As the ML explains, not to choose between these NL combatants for MLB picks, thus, we have to look for deeper information. Though we are very impressed Peralta is 8-1 when is +125 to -125 this season (Brewers Record), we cannot ignore they are 2-8 after getting shutout.
Atlanta on the other hand has enjoyed good success against quality pitching and is 16-5 in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or lower. And, Anderson is 9-0 at home vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse this season. (Braves Record)
We would be shocked if this wasn’t a one-run outcome and while a case could be made for Milwaukee on the +1.5 run line (-195), that is too pricey. Instead, Atlanta gets the lean in a tight one.
MLB Pick: Braves -115 at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.