MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+134) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a big 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday including one doubleheader. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox matchup on Wednesday.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, June 26, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
We are looking for an upset in Beantown Wednesday and are thus backing young Yariel Rodriguez and the Blue Jays as underdogs visiting Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox.
Improving Bullpen
While we admit that Rodriguez has been rather volatile, we like his prospects of racking up strikeouts in this matchup. He enters at 0-2 with an ugly 5.94 ERA and 4.83 xFIP, although that is only through five starts and 16.2 innings. He had allowed three runs or less in each of his first four starts before allowing five runs in just 1.1 innings last time out, which will skew the numbers with such a small sampling.
Still, even over that small sample, the rookie Yariel has continued his pattern from the minor leagues of lots of strikeouts and lots of walks, with a ratio of 9.18/5.94 per nine innings. That walk rate does not figure to stay that terrible as he logs more innings, while the strikeout rate does seem sustainable.
It helps that he is facing a strikeout-prone Boston offense that ranks fifth in the majors with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a rate that climbs to 25.2% at home. Rodriguez also has the support of an improving bullpen that owns a 3.73 xFIP in June, boosting his team’s American League odds.
Lack of Run Support Again?
Crawford has pitched much better than his 3-7 record, given his 3.59 ERA. However, we see the main reason for that record in poor run support coming into play again tonight. Also, Crawford does deserve some of the blame with his xFIP a bit higher at 4.02 and his shaky current form.
Kutter has allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts, although to be fair, he allowed three and two earned runs respectively in two outings allowing at least four total runs. That points to the shoddiness of the Boston defense, which is always a concern.
The Pick
We think that Crawford is still the better pitcher here, but Rodriguez has a nice ceiling due to his strikeouts and seems undervalued at these odds. Therefore, we are opting for that value and betting on Toronto at a nice underdog price in Boston on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6 – Red Sox 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+134) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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