The Toronto Blue Jays will struggle to beat the Boston Red Sox and the MLB odds this Wednesday without one of their top hitters.
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Are the Blue Jays still one year away from World Series contention? The Jays were a hot commodity on this year’s odds boards – and they still are, checking in as +750 second favorites at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press. But things are already going askew for Toronto.
They’ve started the season at 6-5, dropping 0.45 betting units in the hyper-competitive American League East.
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Speaking of which, the Boston Red Sox. They tied the Jays atop the AL East standings Tuesday night by beating them 2-1 as -134 home faves, making Boston (+0.39 units) the only profitable team in the division heading into Wednesday’s matchup – the second game of this three-game series at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox opened as +122 underdogs at Bovada and remain there at press time, making them the right MLB pick for Game 2 as well.
That’s if you believe in the power of FiveThirtyEight. People sure love dunking on Nate Silver when he tweets, but that’s because people don’t understand statistics or their application.
Silver’s crew estimates Toronto’s chances of winning this matchup at 53 percent, which works out to a vig-free moneyline of -113 when you use the wicked-hard BMR Odds Converter.
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That nine cents of difference might only make Boston +122 worth a fun-sized bet, but this is the right time to fade Toronto – and there won’t be many more opportunities in the short term.
The Jays did indeed load up on talent this offseason, but they also lost some key players, including AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and top MVP candidate Marcus Semien. Then they lost another last week when Teoscar Hernandez (.870 OPS last year) strained his left oblique and went on the 10-day injured list.
These missing players have definitely had their impact. Toronto ranks eighth overall in hitting at 1.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to FanGraphs, and No. 22 in pitching with 0.5 WAR.
Wednesday’s projected starter, Jose Berrios, got lit up in his first two starts, salvaging a split despite his unsightly 11.91 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Berrios was Toronto’s Opening Day starter this year. If there’s something wrong with him, everything could fall apart for the Jays.
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Not that the Red Sox (+2000 to win the World Series) are in great shape themselves. Their top two catchers, Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki have both landed on the COVID-19 list; Connor Wong did the honors Tuesday night, going 0-for-2 but driving in the winning run on a sacrifice fly in the seventh.
Provided Wong – or whoever catches Wednesday – can establish a rapport with projected starter Nick Pivetta, Boston should have the betting advantage in this matchup.
Like Berrios, Pivetta (4.28 FIP last year) had a rough go of it in his first two games, taking the L in both, but the native of Victoria, British Columbia is just as likely to improve on his 8.57 FIP as Berrios is to see some positive regression.
We’ll buy that for our MLB picks for a loonie, and why not, let’s pound the over while these two gentlemen are struggling.
MLB Best Bet: Red Sox ML (+122) at Bovada
MLB Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102) at GTbets
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.