Bet This NCAA Tournament Final Four Parlay at (+133) (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for tonight’s Final Four action. First, Villanova will play Kansas. Then, North Carolina will face Duke.
For reasons that I will explain, you should parlay the money-line in each game at the best sportsbooks.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 06:09 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Perimeter Defense
Defensively, Kansas will do what it needs to do by taking away what Villanova relies on most. The Wildcats love shooting three-pointers. They attempt the 20th-highest rate of three-pointers in the nation.
Kansas, however, ranks 16th nationally at limiting opposing three-point percentage and 74th in the nation at limiting the opponent's three-point rate. Jayhawk defenders will guard their man attentively behind the perimeter.
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Their ball-screen defense will harass ball-handlers often compelling them to make difficult cross-court passes through the teeth of the Jayhawk's defense.
Kansas' defense is also selective about who it allows to shoot from deep like in pick-and-pop situations. There is a reason why, in this NCAA Tournament, every team's top shooters fail to be productive against the Jayhawk defense.
But if Villanova's shooters aren't making threes, then it has relatively little else to rely on offensively.
No Justin Moore
Justin Moore's absence not only creates a void in the Nova three-point attack, but it also takes away the player who, for Nova, guarded the opponent's best scorer.
Without Moore, Kansas' Ochai Agbaji will have an easier time. A major threat along the perimeter as well as inside the arc especially via his off-ball movement, Agbaji will demand extra attention from the defense.
Even if Villanova were to focus on taking away Agbaji's interior attack, the threat that he along with Christian Braun and Jalen Coleman-Lands, as guys who also shoot over 39% from deep, demand from the perimeter makes Kansas' offense more than sufficiently balanced and versatile.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas ML (-195) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 08:49 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Duke's Mature Offense
Duke's offense is more mature because it has answered difficult questions. One difficult question is: how should the offense create driving space with Mark Williams in the game?
This question was difficult because Williams is a big man who will primarily operate inside the arc. Whether he's trying to post-up or attack the basket, defenses don't have to worry about his ability to shoot.
When they camp in the paint, they thus account for Williams while limiting driving space for Duke ball-handlers because their presence plus Williams' presence eats up a lot of space in the paint.
The lack of driving space made it more difficult for Duke in general to score two-pointers.
Horns Set
Duke owns the nation's most efficient offense because, via a variety of initiators, it can create good looks at the basket as well as favorable three-point shooting opportunities A lot of these looks come from continuity ball-screen offense and the horns set.
In the horns set, Duke will position its power forward and center at each elbow. The Blue Devils can then create space inside by lifting both bigs. Since Williams and center Paolo Banchero are mobile, they can function along the perimeter, thus clearing up space for Blue Devil ball-handlers inside.
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Both big men may also remain at the elbow and set consecutive screens for point guard Jeremy Roach to make a play.
Banchero may be a playmaker along the perimeter given his dynamic skill set which includes his unique degree of mobility and his ball-handling.
There are all sorts of wrinkles and other motions that will come in this offense.
Slice Screen
Duke's offense will also emphasize Banchero's playmaking abilities via the slice screen. Such actions isolate Banchero in the mid-range from where he is able to go to work for example as a guy who drives and draws a lot of fouls.
Even if Williams isn't parked quite at the basket, he is always a lob threat that the opposing center must account for. By pulling the center away from the basket, Williams makes it easier for the ball-handler to achieve an uncontested layup attempt.
Williams on Defense
Williams' ability to affect the game positively on offense, particularly through his increased role in the horns set, justifies the length with which he may remain on the court because now Duke doesn't have to resort to a small-ball lineup in order to create driving space.
It is important that Duke has Williams available to guard Tar Heel center Armando Bacot. Williams has the mobility to hang around Bacot.
As evident in Duke's last game against Arkansas, Williams is comfortable when he doesn't have to contest an opposing center shooting from deep.
Bacot does not shoot threes. Instead, he will try to attack the basket where, in a pick-and-roll situation, Williams is quick enough to maintain responsibility for Bacot inside especially when he simply remains in drop coverage.
Generally, Williams as a taller 240-pounder has the strength and size to handle Bacot when guarding him one-on-one. His shot-blocking abilities as a post defender and otherwise explain why he owns the nation's 16th-highest block rate.
Because of Williams' effective interior defense, opponents have a vastly lower effective shooting rate when Williams is on the floor as opposed to when he is off.
His ability to account for both a potential lob at the basket as well as for a floater from the current ball-handler makes the Blue Devil defense effective overall while opponents are statistically also weaker at the basket.
Wendell Moore
Wendell Moore's usage rate is decreasing on offense. This means that he has more energy on defense where he'll repeatedly seem like he's everywhere at once, fulfilling his duties as an on-ball defender while helping out.
He's a defensive stopper who can help limit North Carolina's two speedy guards. Moore will handle one with his energy, length, and agile movement while the notoriously quick and shifty Roach will rely on this combination of physical traits to account for the other Tar Heel guard.
NCAAB Pick: Duke ML (-185) at Bovada
The Verdict
With your NCAAB picks in mind, parlay the Jayhawks ML with the Blue Devils ML. Expect Kansas's top playmakers to take over while Duke finds various matchup opportunities to prolong its season.
Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.
Parlay Picks
- Kansas ML (-195)
- Duke ML (-185)
NCAAB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+133) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.