Best NBA Playoffs Player Props to Consider for May 10 (Archive)
The NBA playoffs feature a pair of critical Game 5s this Tuesday evening. Here are a few NBA prop picks from Bovada, a top-rated sportsbook, that should bring you the best value for each game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena
Bam Adebayo Prop Analysis
Jimmy Butler’s 40 points were not enough for the Heat in Game 4. The 76ers got a big fourth-quarter out of James Harden (31 points in the game) to even the series. Who will come up big this time?
Bam Adebayo needs to be better for the Heat to not blow this 2-0 lead and lose the series. He had a slow start to this postseason after missing a week in the COVID-19 protocol. He has yet to take more than 12 shots in any playoff game, but he was 9-of-12 for 21 points on Sunday.
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It was the fourth time in his last five games that Adebayo hit 20 points. His points line for Game 5 is set at 17.5, which feels low for the veteran. Adebayo has scored at least 18 points in 31 of his 56 regular-season games, so more than half the time he comes through.
Look for Butler to cool down from his 40-point game and get more scoring help at home. That help must come from Adebayo, who just needs to avoid the foul trouble he had in Game 3 when he only scored nine points. If he can do that, then he should be around 20 points again to hit his over.
NBA Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points (-112) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
P.J. Tucker Prop Analysis
Veteran forward P.J. Tucker, who just turned 37 last week, has had one of the best seasons of his career. But he is not putting much in the stat sheet in this series. In fact, Tucker has failed to have multiple assists in all four games of this Philadelphia series.
It is the first time all season that Tucker has gone more than two games without multiple assists. A big part of the problem is that Tucker’s teammates have shot ice cold while handling his passes.
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In the first series against Atlanta, Tucker had 12 assists against a total of 19 potential assists according to NBA.com. But in this Philadelphia series, Tucker has two assists and 13 potential assists.
With Tucker having at least two assists in 44 of 71 games this season, let’s bank on the regression catch up and see him get at least two to hit his over in this one.
NBA Prop Pick: P.J. Tucker Over 1.5 Assists (+112) with Bovada
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
Chris Paul Prop Analysis
Are the Phoenix Suns going to blow a 2-0 lead for the second season in a row? Dallas tied the series behind some insane three-point shooting combined with incredibly bad games from Chris Paul. With the best team in the NBA returning home, let’s a bank on things going the opposite direction as the Suns look to reclaim the series lead.
Despite celebrating his 37th birthday, Chris Paul has had a rough week. In Game 3, he turned the ball over seven times in the first half. In Game 4, he had four fouls in the first half. Both are career firsts for a very long, decorated career. Paul also got into a verbal confrontation with a teenage fan after fouling out on Sunday.
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Paul has also gone five straight games with fewer than nine assists, his longest streak as a member of the Suns. It goes without saying that there is a ton of pressure on him to perform right now and avoid another playoff collapse.
We’ll stay clear of the assists problem right now and focus on his points. Paul should be able to get to at least 19 points as he did in the first two games of this series in Phoenix.
NBA Prop Pick: Chris Paul to Score at Least 19 Points (+106) with Bovada
Luka Doncic Prop Analysis
If the Suns are to regain control of this series, they will have to force the Dallas offense to play as it did in the first two games in Phoenix. That means Luka Doncic turning into a one-man show and his points do not matter because the supporting cast fails to deliver for him.
- In the two games in Phoenix, Doncic averaged 40.0 points on 53.8% shooting and 7.5 assists per game.
- In the two games in Dallas, Doncic averaged 26.0 points on 40% shooting and 10.0 assists per game.
Doncic shot considerably worse at home, but it did not matter as his teammates made their shots. Dorian Finney-Smith had eight of the team’s 20 threes in Game 4. Those players like Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are more likely to shine at home than on the road.
Doncic was only averaging 6.4 assists per game in his first five playoff games this year. It wasn’t until these last two games that he broke nine assists. With his assists line set to 8.5, let’s bank on the 'under' happening again in Phoenix.
NBA Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Assists (-134) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.