Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today (March 7) (Archive)
One NBA contender is basically giving up on tonight’s game by resting its best players … but we have found good prop value there.
Here are three NBA prop picks for Monday from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Monday, March 07, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Target Center
Josh Hart
- Over/Under 17.5 Points
The Blazers are in full-blown tank mode now with starters Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic out with long-term injuries and having traded away guys like Norman Powell, Robert Covington and CJ McCollum.
One huge bright spot this season has been the emergence of third-year guard Anfernee Simons, who is averaging 17.3 ppg, but he is out tonight due to a bruised left quad. Eric Bledsoe and Justise Winslow also are out and a couple of other guys are iffy.
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Thus, the only legitimate good NBA player in the starting five tonight is Hart, who was part of the package Minnesota got back from New Orleans in the McCollum trade. Hart was held out of Saturday's game against Minnesota for rest purposes despite the fact that Portland hadn't played since Wednesday but will play tonight.
The Prop Pick
In Hart’s first three games with the Blazers, he scored at least 22 points in each. In the past three, not more than 12. But I expect him to get the most shot attempts by far for this one. Hart has led the Blazers in minutes three times and he probably will tonight. His 3.8 fast break points per game rank third among guards and fifth overall.
Potentially even better news for Hart: Minnesota’s best perimeter defender, Patrick Beverley, is likely to miss a second straight game due to injury.
NBA Prop Pick: Josh Hart Over 17.5 Points (+100) at BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, March 07, 2022 – 08:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Luka Doncic
- Over/Under 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
This might be a Western Conference first-round playoff preview as Utah (40-23) sits fourth in the West and Dallas (39-25) is fifth. Many people questioned the Mavs’ trade of Kristaps Porzingis to Washington for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans, but it has worked out well with Dallas on a four-game winning streak.
Luka Doncic is back playing at an MVP level after starting this season a bit overweight, which he openly admitted. Doncic missed the Mavs’ 114-113 home win over Sacramento on Saturday but will play tonight. In his last game, he put up 41 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in a win over Golden State last Thursday.
Doncic may have to carry an even heavier load than usual because the team’s second-best player, guard Jalen Brunson, injured his foot Saturday and probably will not play. Brunson averages 16.2 points, 5.3 assists and 3.7 rebounds.
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The Prop Pick
This is a big number for Doncic in the latest NBA odds, no doubt, but he’s capable of scoring 49 points alone. Doncic is averaging 26.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 7.8 assists in his last five games against Utah.
Those totals wouldn’t surpass this number, but he also had Brunson for those. I could see something like 35/10/8 tonight.
NBA Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Over 48.5 P+R+A (-112) at BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, March 07, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
Jordan Poole
- Over/Under 22.5 Points
This could be a Western Conference playoff preview, but the Warriors essentially are gifting this win to Denver by resting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II, plus Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are out injured still.
Coach Steve Kerr was not happy where the NBA slotted this makeup game of one postponed in late December because it means three games in four nights in three cities for the Warriors: Saturday in Los Angeles (Golden State lost to the Lakers), tonight in Denver and then tomorrow back at home vs. San Francisco.
Kerr deserves to be fined by the league for so blatantly tanking this game, in my opinion.
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Meanwhile, someone has to score with all those guys out, and I’d expect Poole to get maybe 25 shots attempts as the primary guy. He has totaled 23 points in each of the past two games and those were with Curry, Thompson and Wiggins in the lineup. If Poole gets to the free-throw line, he’s money for our NBA picks.
The former Michigan star had a career-high free throw streak of 45 this season and leads the NBA in free throw percentage (.927 FT%). He has made 80 of his last 82 free-throw attempts (.976%) spanning the last 27 games he has played in.
NBA Prop Pick: Jordan Poole Over 22.5 Points (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.