Bellator MMA takes over the Footprint Center in Arizona for their first pay-per-view event of 2022. Lightweight contenders will throw down in the evening’s co-main event, and we’re supplementing all your wagering needs. Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Benson Henderson vs. Islam Mamedov, including the updated Bellator odds and our free expert betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, January 29, 2022 – 8:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
A familiar name in Benson Henderson returns to the Bellator cage on Saturday. MMA fans have mostly seen the former UFC and WEC lightweight champion in the corner of his MMA Lab students of late, so it’s refreshing to see there’s still some fight left in the legendary martial artist.
Henderson’s MMA origin story stems from a background in Tae Kwon Do. Still, the wrestling pedigree he obtained during his schooling years has assisted him most during a 16-year professional MMA career.
Having left the UFC for Bellator in 2016, Henderson hasn’t experienced the same success compared to his prime fighting years. Still, with a vast knowledge of the sport, he’s become the Bellator lightweight gatekeeper you don’t want to underestimate.
Benson Henderson Best Available Odds: (+315) with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
Islam Mamedov heads to Bellator 273 riding a 19-fight win streak behind a 20-1-1 professional MMA record. Hailing from the Dagestan, Russia, he’s become one of the many students who’re excelling under the tutelage of Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Critics will claim that Mamedov’s record has been padded with easy opponents, but his professional journey has seen stints in WSOF and PFL before arriving at Bellator. Mamedov has fought for highly respected MMA promotions, and with an impressive win-streak intact, his sights are clearly set on Bellator’s lightweight championship.
Islam Mamedov Odds: (-400) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The matchmaking from Bellator is questionable, and I don’t understand why they’d put an ageing veteran versus such a talented prospect.
Henderson’s path to victory is through a striking game plan despite his wrestling background. The heavy grappling pressure of Mamedov will match his wrestling chops, so he’ll want to avoid clinch and ground positions at all costs.
Henderson is accustomed to delivering a calf kick or two; behind a strong jab and some striking combinations, he can unquestionably defeat the Russian with such a strong fight IQ.
Wrestle, wrestle, wrestle. Mamedov was fortunate to walk away versus Brent Primus with his lengthy win streak untouched, as we witnessed his wrestling dominate but only from a positional standpoint. Mamedov will want to avoid accepting a top control position without attempting to cause damage. Still, I do believe he’ll have an easier path to victory versus Henderson than he did with Primus.
Once the Russian prospect lands the takedown, it's going to be a long night for Henderson – who’ll be faced with a relentless top pressure that most fighter’s struggle to escape.
The available odds at Bookmakers Review heavily favor Mamedov at -400, and I’m not interested in supporting this lopsided price.
The good news is we can find a much greater value on the over 2 ½ rounds. While -200 is perfect, it's significantly better than taking the non-existent value found on Mamedov’s moneyline odds.
Henderson’s 3-fight losing streak and a failure to collect a win since 2019 are worrying factors, but his durability has been consistent for over a decade. In 39 professional bouts, Henderson has lost inside the distance on a mere 3 occasions, and Mamedov notably doesn’t mind a griding decision victory.
Bellator 273 Pick: Over 2 ½ Rounds (-200) [2u to win 1u] with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.