Basketball Plays of the Day for March 3: Free NCAAB Picks (Archive)
Tonight, it’s the quarterfinals in the Atlantic Sun Conference. Florida Gulf Coast will take on Bellarmine for the second time this year. Bellarmine defeated FGCU last time out. Will things be different tonight? Let’s see what the NCAAB odds for this matchup tell us!
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Bellarmine Knights
Thursday, March 3, 2022 – 7:00 PM EST at Freedom Hall
The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles will look to advance in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament, on the road, against the Bellarmine Knights. The Eagles finished off the regular season, winning seven of their last eight games, with the lone loss coming against North Florida, on the road.
FGCU just defeated North Alabama on Tuesday, in the first round of the Atlantic Sun Tournament and is now currently 21-10 on the year. Bellarmine already defeated Florida Gulf Coast earlier this season, on the road, 74-63. In that game, Florida Gulf Coast had control for most of the game until the final 10 minutes.
Video Picks: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day
In those 10 minutes, Bellarmine scored 30 points to Florida Gulf Coast's 17, to win by 11. On defense, the Bellarmine Knights have struggled. Opponents have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.8 percent against the Knights and have knocked down 35.6 percent from three and 56 percent from inside the arc.
Bellarmine isn't a threat to earn turnovers, earning just 17.6 percent per game. Plus, the Knights are also not the best on the defensive glass, giving up just under 30 percent offensive rebounds. On the flip side, Florida Gulf Coast is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent while knocking down 35 percent from deep and 53.2 percent from inside.
Read More: March Madness Bracket Projections: 2022 NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Predictions
The Eagles love to take threes and, clearly, hit those shots at a very good pace. On the glass, FGCU earns 29.6% of offensive rebounds, so there's reason to believe that the Eagles will have success on the offensive glass in tonight's game.
On the other hand, Bellarmine has been solid on the offensive end as well. The Knights have shot an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent while only turning the ball over 15.3 percent of the time.
From long-range, Bellarmine has hit 33.2 percent of shots and from inside, Bellarmine is knocking down 55 percent of shots. However, the Knights have struggled to earn second chances and have not been getting to the line consistently.
Bellarmine is averaging just 22.4 percent offensive rebounds and is one of the bottom teams when it comes to FTA/FGA, meaning, Bellarmine isn't getting to the foul line much at all. On the defensive end, Florida Gulf Coast has been average and that should be good enough with the expectation of FGCU's offense exploding tonight.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
The Eagles have allowed teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 49.8 percent, which is in fact, an above-average number on the defensive end. The Eagles have done a solid job limiting offensive rebounds and foul shots, so that also plays into Bellarmine's weaknesses on the offensive end.
Opponents are shooting 33.2 percent from three and 49.9 percent from inside the arc against the Eagles this season.
Prediction
The only issue with FGCU on the defensive end is that the Eagles won't earn turnovers. But they'll keep Bellarmine off the offensive glass, limit second chances, defend at a higher rate, and keep Bellarmine off the foul line.
Meanwhile, Florida Gulf Coast has ridiculous offensive numbers going up against one of the worst defenses in the nation. For our NCAAB picks, let's cheer on FGCU to make the semifinals tonight in the Atlantic Sun.
NCAAB Pick: FGCU +3 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.