Arkansas vs. Duke NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting Preview (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for tonight’s game between Arkansas and Duke.
The Razorbacks just upended the overall number one seed Gonzaga, although the Bulldogs had looked shaky the entire tournament as Georgia State challenged them for 30 minutes before Memphis gave them a good scare despite foul trouble.
Duke is a battle-tested squad, having survived Michigan State and then Texas Tech. Through the talent of its scorers and good coaching tactics, the Blue Devils have earned their spot in the Elite Eight.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, March 26, 2022 – 08:49 PM EDT at Chase Center
Arkansas' Shooting
One key difference in this game is each team's shot-making ability. Whereas Arkansas ranks 316th nationally in three-point percentage, Duke ranks 29th in the category.
On defense, therefore, Duke will want to force Arkansas to become a jump-shooting team.
The Ball Hog
For Arkansas, point guard JD Notae will help Duke out because he is, pun intended, a horrendous ball hog.
Notae's shot selection is abysmal. He'll heave long-shot attempts early in the shot clock. His blind determination to shoot creates stat lines like this: against Gonzaga, Notae attempted 29 shots and made only 9 of them.
He wants to attempt shots despite being an inefficient shooter. He's attempted over 100 threes more than any of his teammates but converts less than 30% of them.
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Besides being an inefficient ball hog, he is reckless with the ball. He'll make poor decisions and wild passes.
While Duke doesn't force a lot of turnovers, Notae committed five turnovers against a Gonzaga defense that likewise struggles to force turnovers. Defensively, Duke's length can bother Notae, but Notae will also help out Duke on his own.
Tactics
Despite rarely employing a zone during the regular season, Coach K introduced one against Texas Tech. Know for your best bets that Coach K used the zone to stymy Texas Tech's offensive rhythm.
When the Red Raiders executed cutters and other actions against the zone, Coach K shrank the zone in order to force Texas Tech to convert perimeter shot attempts. Duke is indeed well-versed against offenses who don't want to shoot jumpers.
In its first game against Virginia, Duke allowed the Cavaliers to have their way inside the arc. Given these two teams' history together, it was fair of Duke to expect Virginia to attempt more shots behind the arc. But Coach K adjusted for the second meeting, playing a very compact defense and forcing Virginia to beat his defense from deep.
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Whether through zone or a very compact man-to-man, Coach K will use tactics to force Arkansas to attempt more jump shots. The Razorbacks are laden with wings or guards who want to attack the basket.
From his days at fellow ACC school Pitt, Au'Diese Toney and his endeavor to score off the dribble is already well-known to Coach K.
What Toney primarily seeks to do -- score at the rim -- is a desire shared to a strong extent by Trey Wade, who is less athletic off the dribble, Devo Davis, who will also dribble-drive and move smoothly off the bounce, and others.
Take away the success that they want to have driving, and Duke makes them uncomfortable on offense.
Free Throws
A large part of the success that Arkansas wants to achieve via the dribble-drive comes at the free-throw line. Statistically, it is a fact that the Razorbacks rely heavily on getting to the free-throw line.
However, Duke is elite at not fouling. The Blue Devils rank second in the nation at limiting opposing free throw attempts. They have become excellent at stopping the teams who most desire to shoot free throws from getting to the line.
For example, they went to Pittsburgh to face a Pitt squad that attempts the nation's sixth-highest ratio of free-throw attempts. Pitt lost that game by 30 as it attempted only 6 free throws. Most recently, the Blue Devils were great about keeping a likewise physical Red Raider squad off the free-throw line.
Arkansas, in addition to having trouble driving against Duke's compact man or shrunken zone defense, will have trouble scoring because their point total relies on the nation's eighth-highest degree on free throws, but the Blue Devils won't let them attempt many free throws.
Williams and Banchero
Basically similar to Gonzaga, Duke has two big men, one of whom will primarily operate inside while the other is more versatile.
The Razorbacks have one reliable rim protector in Jaylin Williams. Williams will have his hands full with seven-foot monster Mark Williams who has the nation's eighth-highest two-point percentage. In addition to being very strong near the basket, Duke's Williams is always a threat as a roller to the basket.
Duke will use its plethora of shooters -- two of whom convert over 40% of their three-point attempts -- to create space for Williams to roll inside.
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I suspect that, moreover, Coach K will not make Gonzaga coach Mark Few's mistake. Few often had his seven-foot stud lurk around the perimeter.
While he is comfortable shooting from deep, Paolo Banchero is great at creating his own shot at the basket. Banchero converts 64.5% of his shot attempts at the rim where less than half of his makes are assisted.
With Jaylin Williams on Mark Williams, Banchero will have a tremendous advantage in terms of size and strength over his Hog counterpart. This physical advantage compliments his guard-like ball-handling ability.
Point Guard Advantage
While perennial ball hog Notae has been struggling for Arkansas -- his offensive rating has remained below 100 in five straight games -- Jeremy Roach is emerging for Duke.
Roach is ridiculously hard for opposing ball-handlers to stay in front of because of his shiftiness. Many suspected that the length of Roach's Red Raider counterparts would bother him, but Roach proved his doubters wrong with a strong combination of points and assists.
Roach's shot creation, shot selection, and selflessness make him the far superior point guard to Notae.
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Whereas Notae is struggling against everybody, Roach's playmaking just energized Duke to victory against the nation's most efficient defense. Moreover, whereas Roach was strong and confident for Duke down the threat, Notae is a reliable choke artist.
Whether it's a bad pass like against Tennessee, a slip like against LSU, a bad shot like against Alabama, Notae will hurt his team with the game on the line.
The Verdict
I don't think that we'll even need Notae to help Duke out in a close-game situation, though. Duke's ability to defend without fouling and to force Arkansas into attempting perimeter shots will keep the Razorback point total low.
Meanwhile, Roach's in-form playmaking and the Razorbacks' lack of an answer for the Williams-Banchero combo will ensure a high point total for the Blue Devil offense.
Plus, other playmakers like Wendell Moore with his high assist rate can take playmaking responsibility away from Roach as he finds Williams or other guys like cutter and catch-and-shoot threat AJ Griffin who ably move off the ball for Duke.
For your NCAAB picks, expect a double-digit win for Duke tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Duke Blue Devils -3.5 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.