Arizona vs. USC NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
We start March with a battle between the top two teams in the Pac-12 as No. 2 Arizona travels to No. 16 USC. The Wildcats are coming off of a shocking 16-point loss at Colorado, that snapped a nine-game winning streak and left the door open for USC to catch them in the final week of the regular season. The Trojans haven’t lost in six games, since the first meeting with Arizona, won by the Wildcats, 72-63.
All three of Arizona’s losses this year have come on the road, and the Wildcats will try to bounce back from the most recent one with a win in their final road game of the season. USC wraps up its home schedule. The Trojans have lost on their home court to Stanford and Oregon this season but have won their last five at the Galen Center.
Let’s break down the college basketball odds for this matchup and keep cashing out!
Arizona Wildcats vs. USC Trojans
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 – 11:00 PM EST at Galen Center
Road Warriors
Arizona’s stretch run schedule has been a test for the Wildcats. Tuesday’s game finishes a three-game road trip, their second one in the last eight games and third in the last five weeks.
A string of COVID-19 postponements at the start of the new year helped contribute to this season-ending slog. Tuesday’s game at USC was one of those rescheduled games—all of which were on the road and all of which were due to COVID-19 protocol issues with Arizona’s opponents. The Wildcats were originally scheduled to face USC on January 2nd.
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Coach Tommy Lloyd isn’t letting the players dwell on the string of road tests, however. “I tell our guys, ‘Listen, pretty soon (will be) the Pac-12 Tournament. If you want to have a chance to win it, you got to play it three consecutive days,” he said. “So you should be ready to play tomorrow. Luckily we don’t have to and you can rest a little bit. But the mentality needs to be recovered like you’re gonna play tomorrow.”
Lloyd and the Wildcats hope the Colorado game was just an aberration. Arizona struggled shooting, hitting its lowest percentage in nearly a month. The Wildcats were outrebounded for just the fourth time this year, and Colorado doubled them up on points in the paint.
Favorable Matchup?
If Arizona’s struggles in the post against Colorado were the start of a trend, that could play right into the hands of the Trojans, who lead the Pac-12 in offensive rebounding. The Trojans rebound more than a third of their missed shots, which is No. 28 in the nation.
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USC also has a strong interior defense, leading the nation in a two-point field goal percentage allowed, at .408. It’s also No. 8 in effective field goal percentage. Arizona is No. 7 and No. 19 respectively in those two categories, so a prolonged slump isn’t likely. The Wildcats shot below 50 percent on two-pointers in the first meeting. They hit 61 percent of their twos in the next six games, before struggling against Colorado.
USC has been winning but walking the tightrope recently. The Trojans’ last three wins have been by a total of six points, including a double-overtime win at Oregon State last Thursday. A 10-point win over Washington is the only one of the last six that was decided by double figures.
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The Trojans hope guard Boogie Ellis will be back to 100 percent for the game. He missed the Oregon State game with an ankle injury. While he returned to the floor against Oregon, he struggled, shooting just 3-of-10.
The Pick
Arizona has scored below 70 points just three times this season and lost two of the games—at UCLA and Colorado. USC will try to slow things down and grind it out inside. Arizona is looking for a get-well game after the loss to the Buffaloes. While they might get it on the road, it won’t be easy or satisfying as the Trojans should give them a fight. For the above reasons, invest in the spread with your NCAAB picks.
NCAAB Pick: USC +4.5 (-108) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.