2022 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix Picks and In-Depth Analysis (Archive)
The semifinals are here in Stuttgart. Four women in excellent form compete for the right to lift the trophy and be handed the keys to the champion’s Porsche. Let’s take a look at today’s WTA odds to find another winning WTA pick.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa
Friday, April 22, 2022 – 08:00 AM EDT at Porsche-Arena
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka ended Anett Kontaveit's 22-game indoor winning streak with a three-set victory yesterday. After two close sets, Sabalenka pulled away for an eventual 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 victory that was played for 1 hour and 47 minutes.
It was Sabalenka's second victory over a big name in this tournament. In the previous round, she defeated Bianca Andreescu. Although Sabalenka dropped a set, her performance against Andreescu was strong, winning 6-1, 3-6, 6-2. Sabalenka's two wins in this tournament have been impressive and are a good sign of things to come for the Belarusian player.
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Aryna Sabalenka is one of the hardest hitters on tour. Her ability to blast first serves makes her one of the toughest women to break on the WTA tour. Sabalenka hits with fierce power off both sides, and her power can rival that of the male players. Her impressive ability to bash the ball by an opponent makes her considered one of the most naturally gifted and talented players on the WTA tour.
Aryna Sabalenka's drawbacks can be consistency and mental fortitude. Although Sabalenka has one of the best serves in the world, her double-fault percentage is extremely high at 12.6%. Her second service wanes from being overly aggressive to hitting soft and high in the search to find a consistent approach to the second serve. Sabalenka will need to work this out in order to truly contend to be the number one player in the world.
Sabalenka also suffers from consistency issues on her groundstrokes. She plays a game that requires a little margin for error. Oftentimes she's painting lines with blistering paced forehands, other times she is hitting the ball three feet out if she is not in rhythm. Addressing her second serve and her baseline consistency are the two keys to unlocking Sabalenka's full potential.
Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa is the Spanish sensation that took the tennis world by storm with her breakout year in 2021.
Badosa plays quite differently from Sabalenka. She is a much more balanced player. She cannot hit nearly as hard as Sabalenka but still dials up powerful shots when need be. She can also play excellent defensively and is quick, athletic, and has great court coverage on the baseline. Badosa also excels at the mental aspect of tennis and seems to play her best in intense situations.
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She is 9-1 in tie breaks this season, demonstrating her ability to play her best in the clutch.
Paula Badosa defeated world number 10 Ons Jabeur to advance to the semifinals today. Badosa was at her best when it mattered, squeaking out the first set 7-6, with an air-tight 11-9 score in the tiebreak. Badosa completely ceded the second set, 1-6. Yet she was able to take control after saving break points early in the third to cruise to a 6-3 third set victory.
It was a good performance from Badosa who was tested in a variety of ways by Jabeur's different strategies to be aggressive. Jabeur abandoned slice backhands and drop shots to try and hit through Badosa. That seems consequential for today. Sabalenka will try to do the same, using her power to hit through Badosa.
The Pick
In a battle between world #3 and world #4, I like Paula Badosa to get the win here today. Yes, Sabalenka is the more naturally talented player, and her best level of play is higher, but I trust Badosa to play her best when the match is on the line.
Badosa has more consistent groundstrokes and seems to get better on the bigger points. She has shown her ability to come through in the clutch. She has also shown that she isn't too bothered by being the counter puncher. Badosa absorbed and redirected the power of Rybakina and definitely thrived when Jabeur was aggressive.
The Rybakina match is more helpful in our handicap, however. Against Rybakina, Badosa knew when to play completely defensive, and when to switch into attack mode. This versatility was the difference. Badosa’a ability to switch gears, sometimes mid-point, allowed her to win the longer rallies.
I don't trust Sabalenka at this point in her career to stay mentally focused, especially against a player with such steely determination. Our best bet for today’s WTA Stuttgart event is Paula Badosa ML.
WTA Pick: Paula Badosa ML (-134) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.