2022 Mutua Madrid Open Expert Analysis and Best Bets (Archive)
The tennis action continues in Spain as the Mutua Madrid Open has captured the eyes of the tennis world. It is a fun tournament set in a beautiful location. Let’s take a look at today’s matches to find more winning tennis picks.
Naomi Osaka vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo
Sunday, May 01, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Manolo Santana Stadium
Naomi Osaka erased any doubt about her intentions here in Spain with her first-round victory over Anastasia Potapova. Naomi Osaka made the victory over the reigning WTA Istanbul Champion seem easy, with a 6-3, 6-1 victory.
Naomi Osaka's first-serve percentage was only 47% but she won 86% of her first-serve points. Potopova was only able to break her serve once and most service games were routine for Osaka.
Osaka's style plays well here on the quicker clay of Madrid. Osaka's powerful groundstrokes were proving to be sharp, creating many easy winners for the American champion.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Naomi Osaka has never been the best clay player, but with low expectations coming into this tournament, she can make a mark and earn some ranking points.
Sara Sorribes Tormo got a quality victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Tormo dropped the second set but was never really in danger of losing in her 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 victory.
Tormo's grinding style eventually wore down Pavlyuchenkova, who was in her first match back since playing in Australia.
Tormo was obviously enjoying playing in front of her home fans here in Spain. Tormo will once again enjoy the support of the crowd in the match today.
I think the WTA odds are too steep in this match for Naomi Osaka. Yes, Osaka did better than expectations in her first-round match against Potapova, but Potapova also has the bad habit of wilting under pressure.
Tormo will fight much harder, especially in front of her home crowd. Torma will ask more questions about Osaka's fitness that Potapova was not able to. Our first best bet for today's Mutua Madrid Open is Sara Sorribes Tormo +4.5 games.
Tennis Pick: Sara Sorribes Tormo +4.5 games (-120) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Maria Sakkari vs. Daria Kasatkina
Sunday, May 01, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Manolo Santana Stadium
Maria Sakkari is a Greek player ranked 5th in the world. Sakkari is 26 years old and finally made the top 10 in 2021.
Sakkari has improved her consistency and mental fortitude to be able to become a top player. Sakkari was a finalist in St Petersburg and Indian Wells but has yet to win a tournament this season.
Sakkari is a gifted athlete who grinds hard and makes her opponent work for every point. Sakkari has won 1 title in her career, and it was on clay.
Check Out: BMR’s Sports Betting Forum
Sakkari won the Rabat Open in 2019. Sakkari made 2 Grand Slam semifinals last season, in the French Open and US Open.
Sakkari will need a strong performance this clay swing to defend those ranking points to keep her #5 ranking. This is a crucial juncture in the career of the young Greek star.
Daria Kasatkina is a 24-year-old Russian player currently ranked 23rd in the world. After starting the season strong, Kasatkina's results have waned since Australia.
Kasatkina has not won two matches in a row since Doha in February. After a strong start where it looked like Kasatkina could return to the top 10, her form has wavered and her confidence has fallen.
Kasatkina lost a set to Anna Bondar in her opening round match but recovered with a strong performance to get the 3-set victory.
Sakkari prefers to hit flat, solid groundstrokes. Kasatkina uses heavy topspin. Kasatkina's use of heavy topspin plays well on clay, but on the quicker surface of Madrid, it will not be as effective as it will be in Rome or at Roland Garros.
However, this is a great opportunity for Kasatkina to get herself back on track before moving into the events that will suit her style better.
She faces a tough path today against Maria Sakkari, who does not commit many unforced errors. Once again we have a situation where the betting odds for the underdog are too high.
Yes, Maria Sakkari is currently the better player, but Daria Kasatkina has beaten Sakkari all three times they have faced each other.
Kasatkina's looping groundstrokes will neuter Sakkari, which will put her on the offensive rather than being in her preferred counter-puncher status.
In Kasatkina's first match, she played well and she should do well here this week. I expect a strong clay court swing from Kasatkina. Our second best bet for today's Mutua Madrid Open is Daria Kasatkina +4 games.
Tennis Pick: Daria Kasatkina +4 games (-125) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.