2022 Miami Open Picks for April 3 (Archive)
Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud vie for 1000 ranking points and the Miami Open 2022 title. In a match between two of the ATP’s young, up-and-coming stars, which man is the right tennis pick?
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud
Sunday, April 03, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Stadium Court
Youngest ATP Champion Potential
Carlos Alcaraz has a chance to become the youngest champion in Miami Open history when he takes the court against Casper Ruud today. Alcaraz would be the third-youngest player to win a Masters 1000 tournament. Only Michael Chang in 1990 at Toronto and Rafael Nadal at Monte Carlo in 2005 have lifted a Masters 1000 trophy at a younger age.
Alcaraz is already the youngest ATP 500 champion in the Open Era. Alcaraz earned that distinction when he won the Rio Open in February. Alcaraz hopes to become number 11 in the world with the win. Alcaraz is now third in the season-long ATP Race to Turin.
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Alcaraz can rise to 2nd place with a victory today. With the ATP tour moving to the clay season, Alcaraz's best surface, Alcaraz can expect his ranking to be even higher by the time he returns to the United States for the hard-court swing at the end of summer.
Carlos Alcaraz reached the final by defeating Miami Open defending champion Hubert Hurkacz. It was a tense match but Alcaraz prevailed 7-6, 7-6. Alcaraz was down a break in the first set but came back to tie the match.
He was then down a mini-break in the 2nd tiebreak, yet he stormed back. Alcaraz's ability to perform under pressure is a developed skill that is far beyond his years. Alcaraz deals with clutch situations like a wily veteran.
Young Blood
Casper Ruud is also making his debut Masters 1000 final appearance. Ruud had a much more simple route to the final, defeating Francisco Cerúndolo 6-4, 6-1. Ruud is currently number eight in the world at 23 years old. Ruud is 13-3 on the year. Ruud has only dropped one set in his path to the final.
He dropped the second set in a 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 victory over world number 4 Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. Casper Ruud was a sizable underdog against Zverev by the ATP odds and that is an excellent victory that we must rate highly.
Casper Ruud has won one tournament so far in 2022. He won the Buenos Aires ATP tournament which is held on clay. He defeated Diego Schwartzman in that final to lift his first trophy of the season. The win was Casper Ruud's 7th ATP title in his career.
Unintended Consequences on Players' bodies
It's not surprising to me that 2 young clay-court specialists are in the final here at the Miami Open. The Indian Wells surface and Miami Open surface are incredibly slow. While slow tennis is great on clay, which is easy on your body, the slow hard courts are absolutely taxing on your body.
It is not a surprise to me that there were 15 withdrawals during the Miami Open this year. Tournament organizers have slowed down the hard courts in favor of the men because they do not want big servers to play the points too quickly. As usual, the unintended consequences have wrought more trouble than it's worth.
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Both the men and the women are having problems keeping their bodies in shape playing this taxing style of tennis on these hard courts. The way the game is played now, especially on the ATP side, is too hard on these players' bodies.
I would hope that the tournament organizers see the folly in their ways of selecting the surface, but I do not hold out hope, for tennis governing bodies have been out-of-touch and inefficient for a while.
For Handicapping Purposes
Keep this in mind while handicapping and selecting outrights for the matches on the slow hard courts. On slow hardcourts, younger clay-court players will have the edge because their bodies can withstand the unnecessary stress that these courts force the player to endure.
Their style of game is suited to play here on the ultra-slow courts like that of the Miami Open.
Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud have faced each other once. The match took place last April at the ATP Marbella Tournament in Spain. Alcaraz was playing in his home country and had the support of the crowd.
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Alcaraz was able to prevail 6-2, 6-4. While clay is not always necessarily predictive of hard court success, since both players are clay specialists and Alcaraz was able to get the win, it does suggest to me that he has a distinct advantage for today's matchup.
This might be one of the rare matches where Carlos Alcaraz does not hit with heavier topspin than his opponent. Casper Ruud generates an inordinate amount of topspin, especially on the forehand side.
This allows him to keep opponents behind the baseline and in a defensive position. Both players use a heavy topspin, so expect to see court position become even more vital to having success today.
Prediction
Casper Ruud is one of my favorite players on the ATP side but unfortunately, I'm going to have to go with the Spanish rising star today. Alcaraz has all the tools to be world number one. Alcaraz is absolutely dominant from the baseline.
He can defend with the best of them and is quick to attack any mistake. He uses excellent point construction to move opponents around the court. He mixes in drop shots to keep opponents from playing him too far back on the baseline.
Alcaraz is already a master at controlling court positions against even the best opponents. The best bet for today's men's ATP Miami Open final is Carlos Alcaraz -3.5.
ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 (-125) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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