2022 BNP Paribas Open Picks for March 20 (Archive)
After 10 days of thrilling tennis, the men’s final has arrived at the BNP Paribas Open. In what should be an excellent match, American Taylor Fritz will take on Spaniard Rafael Nadal. After looking at the ATP odds, I have found the winning ATP pick.
Rafael Nadal vs. Taylor Fritz
Sunday, March 20, 2022 – 06:00 PM EDT at Stadium 1
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz has achieved the best result of his career by advancing to the final of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Fritz has won one title in his career. Fritz won the Eastbourne International in the UK. It is an ATP 250 tournament played on grass. Obviously, it is impressive for Fritz to make a final on an opposite surface that favors opposite styles.
Fritz struggled with his other chances for titles. His previous best finals appearance was in February 2020 at the Mexican Open, an ATP 500 where he fell to Rafael Nadal. Taylor Fritz is 1-5 overall in finals appearances.
Fritz ended Andrey Rublev's 13-match winning streak when he dispatched Rublev in the semifinals. Fritz took control of the match during the key moments. Fritz rode 2 late breaks in each set to a 7-5, 6-4 victory. The win was Fritz's only top 10 victory in this tournament. His previous best result was a straight-set win over world number 31 Alex de Minaur.
Rafael Nadal
At times it felt like we had a passing of the torch moment when Carlos Alcaraz faced Rafael Nadal. The 18-year old Spaniard took on the player he grew up emulating and looked every bit ready for the match. Nadal had to wonder if he was looking into a vision of himself in the past. Alcaraz confidently moved around the court, played excellent defense, and showed off the Spanish style that Nadal has come to represent.
Nadal ended up overcoming the young Alcaraz, but it feels like Nadal has 1 or 2 years left of being able to defeat the hard-charging youngster. Very soon we will see the match when Alcaraz finally beats Nadal and the torch is passed, it just wasn't this weekend.
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The scoreline was 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Nadal saved 9 breakpoints over the course of the match. He put pressure on Alcaraz relentlessly, as Alcaraz had to save 15 breakpoints. Overall it was a wonderful visual of the past versus the future, and one has to wonder, if not for navigating the windy conditions, would the torch have been passed?
Nadal has not lost a match in the 2022 season. He hopes to head into the clay season undefeated with a win over Taylor Fritz today. The ATP odds make Nadal the favorite. Can the legendary Spaniard hold on for one more victory with the tournament title on the line?
Prediction
Nadal feasts on right-handers with suspect backhands. Nadal loves to take advantage of the forehand to backhand rally, and with his heavy topspin and high pace, he can keep his opponents in a disadvantaged court position. Nadal has no problems attacking a weakness over and over. Nadal will force you to play from a position from which you are not comfortable.
On the Fritz forehand to Nadal's backhand cross-court rallies, Nadal has an excellent backhand that can keep pace with Fritz's forehand. Obviously, Fritz's forehand is the weapon he will choose whenever he gets a sitter or a weaker shot, but in standard baseline to baseline rallies, Nadal's backhand can definitely hold its own and redirect down the line in order to get his forehand back into play.
Fritz is going to have a tough task defeating Nadal from the baseline. Fritz is going to need to have an incredible day serving and not let many opportunities pass if he's going to have a chance against one of the sport's elite.
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We've had fitness concerns with Nadal as his grinding style often wears his body down on hard courts. Nadal has already withdrawn from Miami and will rest his body for the upcoming clay season. But, in Taylor Fritz's semifinal win, he did roll his ankle in the second to last game.
Fritz specifically mentioned this in his post-match press conference. Going against Rafael Nadal is tough enough but doing it when you aren't a hundred percent is even tougher. This will be something to keep an eye on, as ankles can tend to be worse one or two days after the original injury.
I expect Nadal to take advantage of Fritz’s weaker backhand and win this match. The ATP odds are steep. Nadal is the heavy favorite on the moneyline at -455. This translates to a game spread of -4 games and a total of 21.5.
I believe the best way to approach this is the -4 games. To achieve this we're going to need at least one set where Nadal has two breaks of serve. I do believe he will be able to achieve this by taking advantage of extended rallies. Today's best bet is Rafael Nadal -4 games.
ATP Pick: Rafael Nadal -4 Games (-125) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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