UFC Pick: Brzeski vs. Williams – Over 2 ½ Rounds (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Picks Summary:
- Lukasz Brzeski vs. Karl Williams: Over 2 ½ Rounds (-110)
- Ariane Lipski vs. JJ Aldrich: Aldrich Wins on Points (-110)
Another weekend of fights, and we’ve got another set of carefully selected UFC prop picks primed as we dive into the betting analysis for the UFC Vegas 71 fight card from the Theater at Virgin Hotels this Saturday.
The UFC Vegas 71 prop betting markets are now available; so continue reading for our analysis of our perfect proposition wagers.
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UFC Vegas 71 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 11, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST
- Location: The Theater at Virgin Hotels
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili (UFC Bantamweight Bout)
Our UFC Vegas 71 Prop Bets
Brzeski vs. Williams Over 2 ½ Rounds (-110): Reasoning
Three of Brzeski’s previous five contests have reached the judges’ scorecards, and he notably doesn’t own a high-level grappling skillset.
Williams has gone the distance in three of his last four bouts, and he can out-grapple the Pole with a more significant wrestling background – all while draining the clock due to a lack of killer instinct in grounded positions.
Aldrich Wins on Points (-110): Reasoning
Nine of Aldrich’s 11 professional career wins were obtained through a judges’ decision.
While she isn’t the most dangerous or athletic fighter, she has the fight IQ and work rate to easily outscore Lipski for 15 minutes – a fighter who continuously struggles to string together a valid game plan to suit her style.
The moneyline play would be great, but as the juice isn’t pretty, so taking Aldrich to win on points is the next-best wager.
Lukasz Brzeski vs. Karl Williams Betting Preview
UFC Vegas 71 Heavyweight Bout
Lukasz Brzeski
Polish national Lukasz Brzeski (8-2-1) fell on a disappointing UFC debut last August when suffering defeat via split decision to Martin Buday.
More interestingly, Brzeski would likely still be competing on the MMA regional scene after his contract-winning Dana White’s Contender Series success was later reversed due to testing positive for a banned substance.
Does the Pole require added assistance to secure victory? Well, he’ll need more than drugs to overcome his weekend opponent, who’ll look to make a statement in front of the Las Vegas crowd.
Karl Williams
Karl Williams (7-1-0) owns the athleticism and wrestling tools to shine in his Saturday promotional debut.
He earned a UFC contract by taking a Division 1-level wrestler into deep waters on DWCS and had previously displayed the required attributes to cause a raucous at heavyweight during his regional scene outings.
UFC Vegas 71: The Prop Bet Breakdown
Both fighters are very green at an elite professional mixed martial arts level. But the red flags undoubtedly present themselves more on the side of Brzeski. In a straight-up pick, I’d have to side with Williams and his potential to out-grapple Brzeski for 15 minutes.
Furthermore, the Pole has displayed a lack of cardio, and with the majority of experience garnered in Poland, he hasn’t faced many threats inside the octagon.
While Williams would be the pick, I don’t expect a finish in this bout. The American has competed in countless fights that have reached the judges’ scorecards, and behind a wrestling gameplan – which is expected – he hasn’t displayed a huge finishing threat on the ground.
The Pick
The available UFC odds with Bookmakers Review have the over at (-110), and it’s clear they’re uncertain about this fight's potential to end via KO/TKO or submission.
However, both men have shown a tendency to drain the clock, and should a Williams grappling game plan play out, it’s easy to visualize this bout going the full fifteen.
UFC Pick: Brzeski vs. Williams - Over 2½ Rounds (-110) at Heritage Sports
Ariane Lipski vs. JJ Aldrich Betting Preview
UFC Vegas 71 Women’s Flyweight Bout
Ariane Lipski
Losing three of her previous four octagon appearances, Brazil’s Ariane Lipski (14-8-0) has been the perfect fade for bettors since 2020.
More glaringly, all three losses were achieved via TKO as Antonina Shevchenko, Montana De La Rosa, and Priscila Cachoeira let their fists fly to earn a dub.
JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich (11-5-0) has presented mixed results but notably has a 7-4 UFC record and two 3-fight win streaks during this stretch.
She’s rightfully the betting favorite on Saturday but has never been a fight-ending threat since joining the promotion.
UFC Vegas 71: The Prop Bet Analysis
The "Fade Lipski Train" has to continue on Saturday. Aside from her notable Brazilian jiu-jitsu skillset, the Brazilian lacks intelligence in almost every area of the fight game.
Lipski struggles to defend takedowns or give them out. Her striking offense and defense have a lot to be desired, and outside of a kneebar stoppage victory three years ago, there aren’t many memorable moments that should concern an Aldrich bettor.
Aldrich could, however, give Lipski her first 3-round decision-loss in four years.
Aldrich is the betting favorite for a reason, she isn’t the best athlete but owns an excellent fight IQ and always enters the cage with a defensive gameplan her opponents struggle to outwork.
The Pick
The available UFC odds with Bookmakers Review favor Aldrich, but we can rely on her taking another fight to the judges’ scorecards to avoid the juice.
She doesn’t hunt for the finish but always does enough to have her hand raised and makes a solid UFC pick.
UFC Pick: Lipski vs. Aldrich - Aldrich Wins on Points (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 71 Main Card & Odds
- Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili [UFC Bantamweight Main Event Bout]
- Alexander Volkov vs. Alexander Romanov [UFC Heavyweight Co-Main Event]
- Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann [UFC Catchweight Bout]
- Ricardo Ramos vs. Austin Lingo [UFC Featherweight Bout]
- Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalj [UFC Light Heavyweight Bout]
UFC Vegas 71 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Karl Williams vs. Lukasz Brzeski [UFC Heavyweight Bout]
- Raphael Assuncao vs. Davey Grant [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd [UFC Middleweight Bout]
- Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti [UFC Bantamweight bout]
- Ariane Lipski vs. JJ Aldrich [UFC Women’s Flyweight Bout]
- Victor Henry vs, Tony Gravely [UFC Bantamweight Bout]
- Tyson Nam vs. Bruno Silva [UFC Flyweight Bout]
- Carlston Harris vs. Jared Gooden [UFC Welterweight Bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
