The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back with eleven scheduled fights set to take place in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, February 18, and although the schedule is smaller than usual, we’ve found the perfect parlay.
We have combined two of our best UFC picks to formulate a top-tier UFC parlay betting prediction for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 69 event; simply continue reading to discover the goods.
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UFC Vegas 69 Parlay Picks
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-104) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
- AJ Fletcher to Win (-260)
- Jamal Pogues to Win (-240)
AJ Fletcher Moneyline (-260) Reasoning
Themba Gorimbo has countless flaws in his MMA skillset. Despite owning multiple submission finishes on the regional scene, his ground control and transitions have much to be desired compared to a UFC standard. AJ Fletcher has endured a rough beginning thus far, but he’s levels above his weekend opponent and should make the -260 price tag look closer to -500.
Jamal Pogues Moneyline (-240) Reasoning
Pogues didn’t look as impressive during his DWCS win compared to his past fights. However, we can’t judge him based on one fight, and if we look closer at his past fight tape – skillset for skillset – he’s unquestionably the more talented fighter than Parisian in every facet of the sport.
UFC Vegas 69 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 18, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 11
- Main Event: Andrade vs. Blanchfield (UFC Women’s Flyweight Bout)
AJ Fletcher vs. Themba Gorimbo Reed
UFC Vegas 69 Welterweight Bout
Fletcher Analysis
It’s been a rough beginning in life as a UFC competitor for AJ Fletcher (7-3-0). After losing his debut against Matt Semelsberger in March of 2022, he returned just five months later to lose another unanimous decision and is now 0-2 inside the octagon.
However, Fletcher’s received a huge drop in competition at UFC Vegas 69. The matchmakers significantly heightened the opportunity to claim his first-ever win for the promotion by gifting him this opponent.
Gorimbo Analysis
I’m hesitant about Themba Gorimbo's (10-3-0) hype as he makes his UFC debut this weekend in Vegas. Referred to as “The Answer,” I don’t think the Zimbabwe native will answer the questions presented by AJ inside the cage because his past fight tape doesn’t display a UFC-level competitor.
UFC Vegas 69 Parlay Pick
I remain baffled as to why the UFC has signed Gorimbo. Aside from his speed and cardio, he hasn’t displayed the elite technique worthy of competing at this level.
AJ Fletcher should dominate this fight based on fight IQ alone. We should expect a wrestling game plan from the American, and as soon as the takedown lands, Gorimbo will squirm like a fish out of water because his defensive skills and transitions on the mat have a lot to be desired.
The available UFC odds placed a reasonable opening line (-160) on Fletcher. Still, the betting public seems to agree with our opinion on Gorimbo, as the odds were steamed to -260.
For this reason, Fletcher has gone from an excellent single wager into a parlay piece. The underdog may find some success in the striking exchanges, but once the offensive wrestling of Fletcher puts him on his back, the likelihood of his returning to his feet is slim.
UFC Pick: AJ Fletcher to Win (-260) at Everygame
Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues
UFC Vegas 69 Heavyweight Bout
Parisian Analysis
Josh Parisian (15-5-0) has gone 2-2 in the UFC since punching his way into the company via a Dana White Contender Series round-one stoppage.
The West Virginia native isn’t a top-tier heavyweight by any means. Still, he does own the skillset to overcome bottom-of-the-barrel competitors, and this was proven versus Alan Baudot and Roque Martinez. However, losses to Parker Porter and Don’Tale Mayes should signal that we aren’t looking at a contender or top-ranked fighter of the future.
Pogues Analysis
Heavyweight newcomer Jamal Pogues (9-3-0) will make his promotional debut this weekend. Although he isn’t debuting with a hype train behind him, he’s displayed a lot of positive aspects regarding his skillset for promotions such as Bellator and LFA.
UFC Vegas 69 Parlay Pick
Pogues is light on his feet and utilizes his jab and distance management well. Although he didn’t perform as a -300 favorite during his Dana Whites Contender Series success, it was his debut at heavyweight, and I expect the flaws in his game to be fixed heading into the weekend.
Parisian is an excellent matchup for Pogues. He’s a UFC debutant priced at -240 because he’s significantly more athletic than his opponent; his footwork and overall octagon awareness feel ready for this division, more so than Parisian.
The available odds have Pogues positioned as a significant betting favorite. While I’d personally handicap this line closer to -200 – strictly based on UFC jitters – we can’t deny Pogues on being the more athletically gifted, faster, and more durable fighter of the two.
UFC Pick: Jamal Pogues to Win (-240) at Everygame
UFC Vegas 69 Main Card & Odds
- Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield [UFC Women’s Flyweight Main Event Bout]
- Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga [UFC Co-Main Light Heavyweight Bout]
- Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues [UFC Heavyweight Bout]
- William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio [UFC Light Heavyweight Bout]
- Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez [UFC Lightweight Bout]
UFC Vegas 69 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva [UFC Women’s Bantamweight Bout]
- Jamall Emmers vs. Khusein Askhabov [UFC Featherweight Bout]
- Ovince St. Preux vs. Phillipe Lins [UFC Light Heavyweight Bout]
- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Evan Elder [UFC Lightweight Bout]
- A.J. Fletcher vs. Themba Gorimbo [UFC Welterweight Bout]
- Clayton Carpenter vs. Juancamilo Ronderos [UFC Flyweight Bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
