UFC Vegas 65 Perfect Prop Bets: A Heavyweight and Bantamweight Betting Pick You May Not Expect

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Gloves belonging to Joanna Jedrzejczyk are left on the floor after Jedrzejczyk lost to Zhang Weili. Photo by NICHOLAS YEO / AFP.

The UFC returns to Vegas on November 19, 2022, and we’re preparing our UFC picks for this weekend of stacked fight night bouts.

When you realize this week’s prop betting picks involve heavyweights and bantamweights, there’s a good chance you’ll believe I have my Over/Under wagers mixed up. Fear not; they’re in the right spot, as we see value for the heavyweights to leave it all in the octagon while the 135lb competitors could end this fight early.

The event is headlined by heavyweight sluggers Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivak. The UFC odds are now available for us to dive into some perfect prop betting picks.

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Vince Morales vs. Miles Johns

Bantamweight Bout

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 02:45 PM EST at UFC Apex

Fighters Analysis

Miles Johns

Since his arrival to the UFC bantamweight division in 2020, Miles Johns (12-2-0) has embodied the term ‘leave it all in the octagon,’ as he’s now five fights into his UFC career, with only one of those contests being decided on the judges’ scorecards.

Johns will return to the octagon this Saturday following a round three arm triangle submission loss to John Castaneda but will undoubtedly be looking to let his fists fly once again in hopes of landing his third promotional KO/TKO stoppage.

Vince Morales

Vince Morales (11-6-0) has struggled to find consistency since arriving at the UFC in 2018, winning just 3 of his 7 UFC bouts.

It’s a make-or-break situation for the Syndicate MMA representative, who could give Johns the scrappy fistfight he thrives in this weekend when knowing another loss could be detrimental to his future at the company.


Morales vs. Johns: Fight Breakdown

Johns has shown great potential thus far, but he’s also presented suspect situations where his chin has been compromised and stopped inside the distance. The same can be said for Morales, who’s evidently struggled to put it all together.

Morales doesn’t back down and will be in the face of Johns for all three rounds, but will it last three rounds? I don’t believe so. If you’re picking a side, it’s an underdog or pass situation, in my opinion.

However, I appreciate the plus-money value of this fight ending before it reaches the judges’ scorecards.


Pick and Prediction

The UFC odds at the best sportsbooks show value in this fight not going the distance. The finish-or-be-finished attitude of Johns has been present.

With apparent punching power from both fighters and Morales's consistent aggression, I can envision a TKO or submission stoppage before the judges’ can intervene.

UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance/No (+120) [1u returns 1.20u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Fight Goes the Distance/No (+120)
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Chase Sherman vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Heavyweight Bout

Saturday, November 19, 2022 - 05:40 PM EST at UFC Apex

Fighters Analysis

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8-0-0) made his UFC debut just two weeks ago. Although he entered the octagon as an accomplished boxer, he failed to impress Jared Vanderaa despite winning the contest unanimously.

Chase Sherman

Chase Sherman (16-10-0) is a UFC competitor who enjoys exchanging leather. The boxing style of Sherman hasn’t assisted his 4-9 UFC record, but he was notably able to do what Cortes-Acosta couldn’t, and that’s finished Vanderaa inside the distance with a flurry of punches.


Sherman vs. Cortes-Acosta: Fight Breakdown

Sherman will enter this contest with an advantage he doesn’t usually possess – a more decisive clinch/grappling game. I can experience the MMA veteran taking complete advantage of Acosta’s one-dimensional boxing skillset by dirty boxing him up against the cage.

Heavyweight competitors naturally own some of the most brutal strikes from any weight class. Although this contest could strictly present strike-for-strike exchanges, I expect Sherman to play this one to his advantage and drain the clock with some clinch work.


Pick and Prediction

The UFC odds show a reasonable price on this bout exceeding 1 ½ rounds. I wouldn’t be surprised if a late stoppage surfaced, but I believe that rounds one and two will predominantly deliver a technical war with little chance of a stoppage.

UFC Pick: Over 1 ½ Rounds (-146) [1.46u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline

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Over 1 ½ Rounds (-146)
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UFC Vegas 65 Main Card and Odds

UFC Vegas 65 Preliminary Card and Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.