UFC Vegas 64 First Look: Rodriguez vs. Lemos Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

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On November 5, the UFC returns to our screens for a highly stacked fight night event from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

With the cancellation of Bryce Mitchell vs. Movsar Evloev, Top-ranked UFC women’s strawweight contenders Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos will meet in the center of the octagon as the replacement main event of the evening.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 64 headliner between Rodriguez and Lemos, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC Vegas 64 first look betting picks,  predictions, and analysis.

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Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos

UFC Vegas 64 Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, November 05, 2022 – 09:15 PM EDT at UFC Apex

Marina Rodriguez

  • Pro MMA Record: 16-1-2 (6 KOS, 1 submission, 9 decisions)

Since her round one stoppage on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2018, the UFC and fans alike knew we had a remarkable women’s strawweight competitor on our hands.

And during her four-year tenure inside the octagon, Marina Rodriguez has garnered a solid 6-1-1 promotional record, with her lone loss coming against the current 115lb champion Carla Esparza.

A Fast Rise to the Top

Aged 35, Rodriguez doesn’t have years to waste, and she’s undoubtedly made the most of her time amongst the elite of women’s MMA as she quickly propelled herself to the top of the rankings.

Even more impressively, she made her first-ever appearance as a professional mixed martial artist in 2015, and it only took her three years before reaching the top tier of the UFC.

Rodriguez competed as a Muay Thai kickboxer before she transitioned to MMA. This skill set has been her primary game plan during fights, with a tendency to strike from the outside while avoiding grappling exchanges.

Marina Rodriguez Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Fight of the Night (One time) vs. Mackenzie Dern
  • UFC Performance of the Night (One time) vs. Amanda Ribas

Marina Rodriguez Best Available Odds: (-190) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)


Amanda Lemos

  • Pro MMA Record: 12-2-1 (7 KOs, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)

With multiple similarities to her weekend opponent, including age and nationality, perhaps the most comparable attribute that Amanda Lemos owns next to Rodriguez is her authoritative record since joining the UFC.

However, Lemos first tasted defeat after arriving at the UFC with a six-year undefeated streak, but these learning curves can be crucial to a fighter’s career, and a 6-2 UFC record is nothing to be ashamed of.

A Comeback Story

Former champion Jessica Andrade handed Lemos her most decent loss with an impressive first-round standing arm triangle choke.

But Lemos has begun her Rocky story as she returned in true fighter fashion by submitting Michelle Waterson in the second round of her previous contest.

Lemos is now facing a potential No.1 contender eliminator versus Rodriguez, as these two ladies are top-10 ranked fighters boasting significant records that deserve a shot at gold.

Amanda Lemos Best Available Odds: (+180) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


Rodriguez vs. Lemos: Breakdown and Analysis

Rodriguez Fight Style and How Can Rodriguez Defeat Lemos?

Rodriguez is primarily a striker, which is no surprise to anybody clued up on her MMA background in Muay Thai. Interestingly, the UFC has matched Rodriguez with many grappling-based opponents, and she's passed the test with flying colors.

And now, Rodriguez will face a fighter in Lemos that loves to strike, so there’s a potential we could witness a Brazilian brawl this weekend. With a lesser worry of the clinch and grappling situations that can lead to grappling fests, Rodriguez should look to stay on the outside and pepper her jabs with a speed advantage I believe she’ll own.

Lemos Fight Style and How Can Lemos Defeat Rodriguez?

Unlike Rodriguez, Lemos throws her strikes with brute force, but this does cause her to load up on shots and provide a low volume in striking battles. But she sure does make it count, as 7 of her 12 professional wins have ended via KO/TKO.

Lemos will be at a disadvantage in size and reach, so her usual approach of setting up combinations behind her push jab could be a problem. She’s previously found success using a front kick and headhunting, but I’m not sure these approaches will do her many favors versus the Muay Thai mindset of Rodriguez.


Rodriguez vs. Lemos: Prediction and Odds

The available UFC odds at top-rated sportsbooks favor Rodriguez, and I cannot argue this price.

Rodriguez is the more technical striker who owns a greater ability to land a higher volume of strikes; she also has five-round experience and will likely possess a cardio advantage.

If Lemos doesn’t find a finishing blow early, she may have to result in grappling, something that could drain a gas tank even further.

I anticipate a striking clinic from Rodriguez, but Lemos' solid durability will keep her around until a judge’s decision gifts the favorite a unanimous decision.

UFC Pick: Rodriguez to Win (-190) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Rodriguez to Win (-190)
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UFC Vegas 64 Main Card and Odds

UFC Vegas 64 Preliminary Card and Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.