The UFC returns to Vegas for a highly anticipated Fight Night event. Welterweight contenders Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez will head the evening’s co-main event, and we’re supplementing all your wagering needs.
This weekend’s original main event between Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev was canceled, thus moving Magny and Rodriguez into a co-main event position. The Haitian Sensation and D-Rod have an opportunity and the required skills to steal the show on Saturday evening.
Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at this weekend’s co-main event clash between Magny and Rodriguez, including the updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC Vegas 64: Rodriguez vs. Lemos betting picks, predictions and analysis.
Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez
UFC Vegas 64 Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, November 05, 2022 – 08:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
- Pro MMA Record: (26-9-0) (7 KOs, 3 submissions, 19 decisions)
- Age: 35
- Height: 6'3"
- Reach: 80.0"
- Training Out Of: Elevation Fight Team
- Origin Fighting Style: Wrestling
It seems like yesterday that Neil Magny was competing in the Ultimate Fighter Season 16. Still, it’s now been over a decade that the Haitian Sensation has been competing at the highest level of MMA. He’s remained amongst the top-ranked elite for most of his Ultimate Fighting Championship tenure.
A promotional record of 19-8 speaks volumes about his skill level. Although he never managed to earn a championship fight, he’s defeated four former champions; Kelvin Gastelum, Johny Hendricks, Carlos Condit, and Robbie Lawler.
Stemming from a background in wrestling favors the extended frame of Magny, but it’s often frustrating to witness the ideal MMA body type falter in utilizing the tools he’s born with.
That said, mid-tier competitors are faced with an extremely difficult welterweight gatekeeper when they’re matched against Magny, and he’ll likely remain a top-15 ranked fighter for years to come.
- Pro MMA Record: (17-2-0) (8 KOs, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Age: 35
- Height: 6'1"
- Reach: 74.0"
- Training Out Of: Syndicate MMA
- Origin Fighting Style: Boxing
Entering the UFC fighter pool at the age of 33 didn’t place Daniel Rodriguez on the right side of time; however, the Golden State representative has soon made up for those lost years as he enters his ninth UFC contest in two years of competing for the company.
Rodriguez’s late arrival on the big stage isn’t a surprise. He didn’t begin competing in MMA until his mid-twenties, so reaching this level of competition and finding ways to overcome lifelong martial artists is a true testament to his ability.
Re-watching Rodriguez’s past fights will instantly reveal his primary discipline, boxing. A lack of grappling experience has previously cost him victory, but with a 7-1 UFC record, we haven’t witnessed these outcomes on many occasions.
Magny vs. Rodriguez Breakdown and Analysis
Magny Fight Style and How Can Magny Beat Rodriguez?
As previously mentioned, Magny’s decision-making in the octagon can be frustrating. When he doesn’t utilize the huge length advantage he usually owns in the octagon,
I’ll find myself screaming at the television as he decides to shell up and act like a 5-foot-8 competitor. I genuinely believe recognizing his natural size and length could have taken Magny to title contention, especially in his striking offense.
Grappling isn’t a problem for Magny, he excels in this area, and when a striking battle isn’t favoring him, he can always shoot for a takedown and usually maintain ground control.
However, with an opponent like Rodriguez, utilizing size and length won’t support him through three rounds. He’ll want to use a grappling game plan, wear the striker down with cage and ground control, and sail to a unanimous decision.
Rodriguez Fight Style and How Can Rodriguez Beat Magny?
The UFC isn’t doing Rodriguez many favors by placing him against a strong grappler like Magny.
Most critics believe Rodriguez was fortunate to receive a split-decision victory over Li Jingliang in his previous bout. Still, we must remember that judges score a fight on accumulative damage first and foremost. This is how he can overcome Magny.
If Rodriguez can bait Magny into a stand-up battle, he’ll undoubtedly land the more damaging strikes. Magny isn’t known for his viciousness or finishing ability, he’s a point fighter, and it doesn’t require much to deliver more punishable damage during a 15-minute bout.
Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez Betting Picks and Odds
The available odds at top-rated sportsbooks slightly favor Rodriguez, but this fight is almost a pick’em.
Because we can’t trust Magny’s fight intelligence and Rodriguez is unquestionably the lesser well-rounded mixed martial artist, wagering on a side isn’t wise, as suggested by the available odds.
I believe Magny can win this bout, and as his career thus far has provided, it’ll likely be a fight won on the judges’ scorecards. Nineteen of Magny’s career victories were obtained by decision, and five of Rodriguez’s eight UFC bouts ended in the same fashion.
I was surprised to see -210 on this fight going the distance, and I see plenty of value in this play.
UFC Vegas 64 Main Card and Odds
- Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos [UFC women’s strawweight main event bout]
- Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez [UFC welterweight co-main event bout]
- Josh Parisian vs. Chase Sherman [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness [UFC flyweight bout]
- Mark Madsen vs. Grant Dawson [UFC lightweight bout]
UFC Vegas 64 Preliminary Card and Odds
- Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke [UFC featherweight bout]
- Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Jinh Yu Frey vs. Polyana Viana [UFC women's strawweight bout]
- Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Liudvik Sholinian [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Jake Hadley vs. Carlos Candelario [UFC flyweight bout]
- Ramona Pascual vs. Tamires Vidal [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.