After one week without the UFC, we are back and ready to dig deep into the well of violence that basically pays for my monthly pie order from Aunt Mae’s House of Pie and CBT.
We’re back at the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 56: The search for Curley’s Gold… Which is what I hear UFC early prelim fighters are being paid with now. Jokes aside, let’s break down some UFC odds and get the popcorn ready for Saturday night!
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC Heavyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 04, 2022 – 09:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Rozenstruik vs. Volkov Betting Preview
In the main event of the card, we get to enjoy my favorite thing in the world: THICK HUMAN VIOLENCE. Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov will pummel one another as they both look to regain standing in the increasingly crowded UFC heavyweight division.
With Jon Jones' voice growing louder in the division and Francis Ngannou out with an injury until what may be the end of 2022, the window may be closing for either the up-and-coming Rozenstruik or the popular veteran Volkov from getting into the title picture.
The last few years have not truly been kind to Rozenstruik, as the kickboxer turned mixed martial artist has dropped three of his last five bouts with all three being losses to fellow bulls in the 265-pound division:
- Curtis Blaydes
- Ciryl Gane
- Francis Ngannou
The latter two holding claim to either the interim or undisputed UFC Championship.
And while three losses is still three losses, those are quality losses and all but the Ngannou loss (because Ngannou is the destroyer of worlds) came by way of decision, something that Rozenstruik has rarely seen in his pro career.
How Old Are Volkov and Rozenstruik?
Alexander Volkov is the younger fighter as he is 33 years old to Rozenstruik’s 34, but has been in the MMA Zeitgeist since signing with M-1 Global in 2008 and having runs in both Bellator and the UFC.
While the age difference is scant, the experience difference feels like the Springfield Gorge, as Volkov is a former Bellator Heavyweight Champion and Rozenstruik has yet to fight for any kind of championship since joining the sport in 2012.
This is why walking into "The Baby Cage” on Saturday night, Volkov is the betting odds favorite to walk out of there with the win at -150 as per BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
And while Volkov feels like true value, Rozenstruik is set at +130 as of this writing. Honestly, I’d feel comfortable taking those odds and seeing what happens.
Rozenstruik vs. Volkov Lock on the Card
The reason why the Volkov line is so low for him is that he’s lost to both Blaydes and Gane in the same fashion as Rozenstruik lost: An unanimous decision.
The only time that Rozenstruik got cooked/finished/sent to bed was against Francis Ngannou and Volkov’s chin has been reupholstered by:
- Derrick Lewis (the “My Balls Was Hot” fight)
- Vitaly Minakov (when he dropped the Bellator heavyweight crown)
And while Volkov lost in his last fight to Tom Aspinall by first-round submission, I would put an unfair amount of money on this fight not ending in a submission. For me, this causes a splitting of the difference and which leads me to take the over 3 ½ rounds as my UFC pick for this event.
Rozenstruik has amazing power, but Volkov isn’t someone who gets caught on the chin early. Even with this fight coming in the baby cage, you wanna keep your eyes on the over as every time Rozenstruik fights a “peer” of his generation, he is in it for the long haul (Blaydes/Gane).
UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-125) at BetOnline
Think I’m right? Wanna kiss? Let me know on Twitter at @MattRyanYells.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.