UFC Vegas 54 Prop Betting Picks: The Perfect Proposition

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Michael Johnson of the United States reacts after being defeated. Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas for a highly stacked Fight Night event. The odds are now available for us to delve into some perfect UFC prop picks for UFC Vegas 54 – headlined by a light heavyweight contenders’ bout between Jan Blachowicz and Aleksandar Rakic.

Michael Johnson vs. Alan Patrick

UFC Lightweight Preliminary Card Bout

Saturday, May 14, 2022 – 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex

35-year-old Michael Johnson (19-17-0) reached a peak moment during his UFC tenure between 2012-2016, but he’s been an uphill battle ever since. During his prime years, you’ll find successes over Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Dustin Poirier.

Despite these notable wins over former champions and title contenders, Johnson has been on a severe decline ever since, with a 3-7 record from his previous ten octagon appearances without a win since 2018.

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Fellow veteran of the UFC octagon Alan Patrick (15-3-0) is additionally winless since 2018. Still, despite being the older man at 38 years old, the damage taken is notably less, with just eight fights for the promotion since his 2013 debut.

Johnson vs. Patrick Fight Breakdown

When evaluating the skill set of each fighter, their paths to victory are apparent, as Johnson should own the striking advantage. In contrast, Patrick will outscore his opponent via a heavy grappling game plan.

With that said, predicting a winner of this bout is a coin flip situation. Patrick looked terrible in his last bout with Mason Jones, where the Welsh up-and-comer dominated until an accidental eye poke somewhat gifted Patrick a get-out clause.

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Likewise, Johnson was entirely outclassed by Bobby Green the last time we saw him compete in 2020, and we shouldn’t expect a newly invigorated version of Johnson following a two-year layoff because his evolution years are long behind him.

UFC Vegas 54 Odds Analysis

The available UFC odds with Bookmakers Review favor Johnson on the moneyline, but I’m more intrigued at backing this fight to the reach the judges’ scorecards.

I don’t know how much longer either fighter wants to compete in the octagon, but I believe they’ll equally be conscious of losing their job with another subpar performance.

With this in mind, I can envision a willingness to play this fight safely from both men and avoid situations that could generate a fight-ending moment.

UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 2 ½ Rounds (-160)
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Viviane Araujo vs. Andrea Lee

UFC Women’s Flyweight Preliminary Card Bout

Saturday, May 14, 2022 - 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex

Brazilian brawler Viviane Araujo (10-3-0) has a positive UFC tenure thus far, with a positive 4-2 record. She loves to strike, and her punching power is deceiving but aged 35, she needs to ramp up her activity to extend her No.9 ranking into the top 5 of the division.

Andrea Lee (13-5-0) has made significant strides following a 3-fight losing skid in 2019/2020, and now she’s entering the weekend on a 2-fight win streak as the No.8 ranked female flyweight globally.

Araujo vs. Lee Fight Breakdown

While this fight is challenging to break down, I don’t believe Araujo has enough in the gas tank to outwork Lee across all three rounds. It’s a knockout or bust situation for Araujo, but the toughness of the Brazilian will most likely keep her present until the judges’ scorecards are required to dictate the winner.

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The most notable aspect of Lee’s game is her ability to work; she will deliver the output and consistent pressure, which should translate into the judges’ decision.

UFC Vegas 54 Odds Analysis

The best sportsbooks slightly favor Lee, but these tight odds represent the difficulty of predicting this bout, so tread carefully.

For a plus-money helping, wagering on Lee to win this contest by decision is a risk I’m willing to take based on her most recent performances that have delivered an impressive work rate to get the job done.

UFC Pick: Lee on Points (+130) [1u returns 1.30u profit] at BetOnline

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Lee on Points (+130)
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UFC Vegas 54 Main Card on ESPN and ESPN+

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.