This is the end… our dear old friend the end. The end of a chaotic year in Mixed Martial Arts that saw legends crumpled, legacies built and all of us pulling a Joe Schmo and wondering, “what is going on!?”
That leads us to this Saturday night inside the UFC Apex and the “Baby Cage” for the final time in 2021, headlined by Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus, with Lewis looking for redemption following his loss to Cyril Gane for the interim UFC Heavyweight title earlier this year.
Let’s break down some UFC odds, shall we?
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus
UFC Heavyweight Main Event Bout
UFC Saturday, December 18, 2021 – 09:04 PM EST at Apex Center
I love Derrick Lewis, who doesn’t? One of the most charismatic fighters in a division that so badly needs charisma.
He is in a no man's land walking into Saturday night, as he’s been one of the most fortunate fighters in the 265-pound division, two title shots in under three years, main event fights and an impressive streak that started with a walk-off knockout of Alexander Volkoff and telling Joe Rogan and the world his “balls was hot.”
And that is the reason why I cannot shade Derrick Lewis against Chris Daukaus, because I don’t know what the sweet hell he’s gonna do inside that cage.
This is not a shot at Daukaus, the dude is an animal inside the Octagon, and now that he’s resigned from being a full-time Philadelphia Police Officer (you actually make more money betting on Daukaus than he makes this fight, which is depressing) recently to dedicate himself to being a full-time fighter.
If you did a cross-comparison of their last four opponents, you’d see Daukaus got the wins in an emphatic fashion and that Lewis got dropped by Gane in their fight earlier this year. But then you see the list of opponents Daukaus has faced and you ask yourself, “are they Derrick Lewis?”
No, no they are not. Prior to the loss to Gane, Lewis won four straight over Curtis Blaydes, Aleksei Oleinik, Ilir Latifi, and Blagoy Ivanov, with the latter two being by decision.
Per BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), a -109 line for Daukaus walking into this fight feels a bit juiced to me as despite his wins, the quality of them are less than Lewis, who despite a loss has one of the best records and some of the toughest opponents of most heavyweights in the division, while he is a +119 underdog per BetOnline.
For me, the true value comes in the over 2 ½ rounds, which basically means we’re gonna see a decision or a walk-off. Daukaus has yet to see a third round in the UFC and only once in his pro career, but Lewis has 14 times in his career. Weird, right?
For me, the true test is whether or not Daukaus can get inside and land shots on Lewis and be able to piece him up. The ex-Philly cop is a BJJ Black Belt, but has yet to pull a submission in his career, while Lewis is 1-1 when the fight has been stopped due to submission and he’s only a blue belt in BJJ.
Also, the only person to tap Lewis was then UFC Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier… which could count for something when both men were the walking wounded entering that fight.
Take the over for your UFC pick, which according to BetOnline is +130, and not a bad value add for what can be a really exciting fight.
UFC Pick: Over 2½ Rounds (+130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.