UFC in Vegas 39 Prop Picks: The Perfect Proposition Betting Picks

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Shana Dobson is kicked by Sabina Mazo. Joe Scarnici/Getty Images/AFP.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas for an eventful night of mixed martial arts combat. The UFC odds are now available for us to delve into some perfect prop UFC picks in Vegas 39 – headlined by women’s strawweight contenders Marina Rodriguez and Mackenzie Dern live on ESPN.

Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova

UFC Women’s Strawweight Bout

Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center

The Fighters

Two identical professional records (9-2) and two identical years of birth (24-years-old) will clash this weekend as two prospects from the women's strawweight division battle it out for rankings supremacy.

Mariya Agapova entered the UFC with a lot of promise, but her inability to pace herself throughout each round has exposed a weakness that's hard to ignore. Many of her contests have ended within the first round - and to her credit, that's because she's a quick finisher. However, amongst the elite competition of the UFC, Agapova will need to prove herself outside of the first five minutes.

Sabina Mazo isn't the type of fighter to give up easily; she's a young and prosperous contender much like her opponent this weekend. Behind a Muay Thai base, she shouldn't have issues defending an early onslaught Agapova usually begins with.

The Perfect Prop Bet

The available UFC odds with Bookmaker Review are fair, especially when considering the above concerns that Agapova's approach has presented.

When Agapova is presented with an opportunity to go wild, I predict she'll fall into this same trap and drain her energy – leaving huge openings for Mazo to finish the fight within fifteen minutes.

UFC Pick: Mazo Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mazo Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action (+110)
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Tim Elliot vs. Matheus Nicolau

UFC Flyweight Bout

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center

The Fighters

Tim Elliot (17-11-1) is a seasoned veteran of the UFC octagon, having fought some of the most recognizable names in the sport. Twenty-nine professional bouts later, and he's still competing at the highest level behind a well-rounded MMA skillset.

Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1) began his UFC career at a young age, joining the promotion from Brazil's edition of The Ultimate Fighter. His tenure thus far has been impressive, but a fortunate split decision result versus Manel Kape during his previous bout was a highly controversial choice by the judges'.

In a contest where Kape evidently won rounds two and three, Nicolau revealed a handful of tendencies that can undoubtedly be capitalized on during this weekend's bout.

Elliot vs. Nicolau Prediction

I can ultimately envision another tight split decision outcome during the Elliot and Nicolau bout. Where Nicolau owns an elite grappling skillset, Elliot is an intelligent martial artist who can find the answers to the Brazilian's offense.

Watching Nicolau allow Manel Cape to pressure him for the last two rounds gives me a funny feeling that Elliot can emulate this pressured style of a game plan. I do not doubt that Nicolau owns the advantage on the ground, but from a striking perspective, I believe a high output of Elliot can draw this fight to the judges' scorecards.

With that said, we want to avoid another split decision robbery. And BetOnline offers a point spread to assist with this. Take Elliot on the +3.5 point spread and remove the worry of any judges' failing to do their job correctly.

UFC Pick: Tim Elliot +3.5 Point Spread (-155) at BetOnline

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Tim Elliot +3.5 Point Spread (-155)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.

UFC in Vegas 39 Main Card on ESPN & ESPN+

Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern [UFC women's strawweight main event bout]
Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden [UFC welterweight co-main event bout]
Tim Elliot vs. Matheus Nicolau [UFC flyweight bout]
Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo [UFC women's flyweight bout]
Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn [UFC middleweight bout]